Buy a boat now with this market, or wait?

I’m still in. Even with the cut backs if I can’t get close to my asking price on my boat I’m selling. I’ve wanted a bigger boat for a while and the additional couple hundred on a 30 year loan is not that big of a deal. Ive never lived the proverbial 10% above my means so spending a little extra on a bigger boat is an acceptable risks.
Living life waiting for the other shoe to drop is a miserable existence.

If you want to “social distance” what better way than on a boat.
 
Unfortunately we are just now seeing the beginning of the health and monetary crisis. Unemployment is likely to hit the teens. I hope I am wrong but the end result of this pandemic will make 2008 look like a walk in the park!
 
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It will pass but in what time frame? In PA the governor is contemplating state wide shelter in place order. Everything except essentials is closed already. Sounds like a 2 month affair at least. I'm in a life critical business and even at that, I see a huge drop in demand. I think a lot of small businesses womt make it through this. There will be a glut of boats on the market, a buyer's market. Thise with money will be able to make deals. I bought my current boat in 2008, buyers market. Buckel up, it's going to be a wild ride.
 
It will pass but in what time frame? In PA the governor is contemplating state wide shelter in place order. Everything except essentials is closed already. Sounds like a 2 month affair at least. I'm in a life critical business and even at that, I see a huge drop in demand. I think a lot of small businesses womt make it through this. There will be a glut of boats on the market, a buyer's market. Thise with money will be able to make deals. I bought my current boat in 2008, buyers market. Buckel up, it's going to be a wild ride.
That's the problem. Nobody is certain of the time frame. On tv the talk about several months. But several months of what. If we are all locked down for several months, then kiss the country goodbye. No way that works. If we can start coming out out first week of April, then we may have a fighting chance. Small businesses are toast. Congress is talking about a "lifeline." Problem is it has an anchor attached to it. If this thing last a month, I'll need $200K to keep the company afloat. The congress is talking about a "payroll tax holiday" -- that's about $5000/week for me. They don't get it. If your not big, and don't sell food, how do you survive? The only companies that have a chance are walmart, target, amazon and the like. There is a reason Trump is pushing hard to use the hydroxycloroquine, with limited evidence -- the FDA doesn't get it and is killing us. What happened to the "if it saves one life" montra? Stay optimistic, but the reality is this is bad, really bad.
 
That's the problem. Nobody is certain of the time frame. On tv the talk about several months. But several months of what. If we are all locked down for several months, then kiss the country goodbye. No way that works. If we can start coming out out first week of April, then we may have a fighting chance. Small businesses are toast. Congress is talking about a "lifeline." Problem is it has an anchor attached to it. If this thing last a month, I'll need $200K to keep the company afloat. The congress is talking about a "payroll tax holiday" -- that's about $5000/week for me. They don't get it. If your not big, and don't sell food, how do you survive? The only companies that have a chance are walmart, target, amazon and the like. There is a reason Trump is pushing hard to use the hydroxycloroquine, with limited evidence -- the FDA doesn't get it and is killing us. What happened to the "if it saves one life" montra? Stay optimistic, but the reality is this is bad, really bad.
Do you work in Healthcare? What doesn't the FDA get?
 
Do you work in Healthcare? What doesn't the FDA get?

The FDA is only looking at this as a "healthcare crisis." Thus, they are applying their regulations -- everything need to go thru them to get approval. For example, manufacturers determined that ventilators used in operating rooms could be converted to be used on covid-19 patients. They have to reprogram a screen. They where or are waiting for FDA approval to do so (it was mentioned in a press conference). That's why Trump is so publicly touting the potential of hydroxychloroquine -- putting pressure on the FDA. FDA wants the science, which I get 100%. But by the time the science is done, we're all "dead." This is way way way way way more than a healthcare crisis. It's a worldwide economic crisis the effects of which will last decades longer than the effects of this virus. In other words, the virus isn't the problem. It won't adversely affect the vast majority of people -- they won't get it, and if they do they'll recover. The problem is the economic calamity our reaction is taking. FDA needs to get out of the way. Just one man's opinion.
 
The FDA is only looking at this as a "healthcare crisis." Thus, they are applying their regulations -- everything need to go thru them to get approval. For example, manufacturers determined that ventilators used in operating rooms could be converted to be used on covid-19 patients. They have to reprogram a screen. They where or are waiting for FDA approval to do so (it was mentioned in a press conference). That's why Trump is so publicly touting the potential of hydroxychloroquine -- putting pressure on the FDA. FDA wants the science, which I get 100%. But by the time the science is done, we're all "dead." This is way way way way way more than a healthcare crisis. It's a worldwide economic crisis the effects of which will last decades longer than the effects of this virus. In other words, the virus isn't the problem. It won't adversely affect the vast majority of people -- they won't get it, and if they do they'll recover. The problem is the economic calamity our reaction is taking. FDA needs to get out of the way. Just one man's opinion.
The FDA is not standing in the way of people getting that treatment at all. Our Governor in MN told 3M to put the pedal to the metal and make as much masks as possible even if they have to cut corners and they will be exempt from any law suits. The study which I have included in the link below was down with 30 people. 30 people for a drug study is NOTHING, BUT we are using that for the treatment regimen till something changes. My healthsystem I work for has gathered all the hydroxychloroquine at their outpatient pharmacies and have funneled it to the main hospital. We have an standard order developed just for COVID-19 and yes it includes hydroxychloroquine. Us hospital workers are doing the best we can with what little supplies we have. We aren't waiting to hear from the FDA what to do, we don't have time for that. So please know we are using everything possible to fight this.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/f...ibiotic-combo-could-reduce-covid-19-duration/
 
The FDA is not standing in the way of people getting that treatment at all. Our Governor in MN told 3M to put the pedal to the metal and make as much masks as possible even if they have to cut corners and they will be exempt from any law suits. The study which I have included in the link below was down with 30 people. 30 people for a drug study is NOTHING, BUT we are using that for the treatment regimen till something changes. My healthsystem I work for has gathered all the hydroxychloroquine at their outpatient pharmacies and have funneled it to the main hospital. We have an standard order developed just for COVID-19 and yes it includes hydroxychloroquine. Us hospital workers are doing the best we can with what little supplies we have. We aren't waiting to hear from the FDA what to do, we don't have time for that. So please know we are using everything possible to fight this.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/f...ibiotic-combo-could-reduce-covid-19-duration/
Well that’s good to hear. But funny thing is only Trump is saying that. The experts and media are all saying, “hold on we need to test.”

and 3m is making millions of masks. So the system should be flooded soon. But it all will “just in time” inventory. https://news.3m.com/press-release/c...ons-support-healthcare-effort-combat-covid-19
 
Bottom line:
This is more like the flu than anything else.
Take the same precautions you would to guard against the flu.
If you get it, treat it like you would the flu.
If the flu would be life threatening to you because of age or medical condition, this will too.
If the flu isn’t likely to be life threatening to you, this probably won’t be either.
 
Bottom line:
This is more like the flu than anything else.
Take the same precautions you would to guard against the flu.
If you get it, treat it like you would the flu.
If the flu would be life threatening to you because of age or medical condition, this will too.
If the flu isn’t likely to be life threatening to you, this probably won’t be either.
That is true for the MOST part but we have seen young people (30-50) who crash FAST and need vents and who die. that is VERY VERY RARE for influenza.
 
Well that’s good to hear. But funny thing is only Trump is saying that. The experts and media are all saying, “hold on we need to test.”

and 3m is making millions of masks. So the system should be flooded soon. But it all will “just in time” inventory. https://news.3m.com/press-release/c...ons-support-healthcare-effort-combat-covid-19
The media is not your physician/pharmacist. Trump saying that makes it seem like everyone should get it no matter what and that is not the case. It is not a super common drug so there isn't a lot of it. I hope the drug manufacturers don't hike up the price of it now as they have done for in the past with other cheap drugs. That would be a shame and should be outlawed.
 
I have read the above with interest, but note that no one is talking about fear. Fear is one factor that drives the market lower. Right now everyone is "uncomfortable", but there is no fear. That fear will come as the number of virus cases increases, and more businesses close, and when it does come the market will tank. Boaters will be caught in the middle between a loss of value in the stock market, and having continuing monthly expenses with slips, etc., the combination of which will drive down the price of non-essential/pleasure boats.
 
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I have read the above with interest, but note that no one is talking about fear. Fear is one factor that drives the market lower. Right now everyone is "uncomfortable", but there is no fear. That fear will come as the number of virus cases increases, and more businesses close, and when it does come the market will tank. Boaters will be caught in the middle between a loss of value in the stock market, and having continuing monthly expenses with slips, etc., the combination of which will drive down the price of non-essential/pleasure boats.
3.3 million showed fear last week.
 
I agree w the comments about fear. But I believe greed is more powerful especially in Wallstreet.

The reason I believe we’ll have a V shaped rebound is that the current economy dropped due to the impact of the virus and not the typical economic triggers.

The economy was roaring and still growing therefore my logic informs me that as soon as the virus and related fears subside traders will scoop large buys at value and the Market will return.

As companies announce reopening plans and dates the improvements will begin before people actually show up for work.

Flights will be booked in advance. Everyone who cancelled spring break will want a good summer vacation.

Travel and tourism will be a little delayed but will come back just in time for summer vacation season.

Interest rates will be low and those who didn’t lose their jobs will buy the new car/truck/house and by Fall especially pre-flu season things will be 90% back which was pretty damn good.

These are forward looking statements and not intended to be financial advise. Past performance is no predictor of future performance.
 
3.3 million showed fear last week.
I do not agree. We have not begun to see fear. No one is talking about fear, or writing about it, and it's not on the evening news. But I believe it's coming. But then I'm married - I only know what my wife tells me. LOL
 
I agree w the comments about fear. But I believe greed is more powerful especially in Wallstreet.

The reason I believe we’ll have a V shaped rebound is that the current economy dropped due to the impact of the virus and not the typical economic triggers.

The economy was roaring and still growing therefore my logic informs me that as soon as the virus and related fears subside traders will scoop large buys at value and the Market will return.

As companies announce reopening plans and dates the improvements will begin before people actually show up for work.

Flights will be booked in advance. Everyone who cancelled spring break will want a good summer vacation.

Travel and tourism will be a little delayed but will come back just in time for summer vacation season.

Interest rates will be low and those who didn’t lose their jobs will buy the new car/truck/house and by Fall especially pre-flu season things will be 90% back which was pretty damn good.

These are forward looking statements and not intended to be financial advise. Past performance is no predictor of future performance.
I agree with your overall philosophy, but not in the V shaped rebound. Right now the unemployment claims are over 300,000, and that number is sure to increase shortly. That means people are using their saving, 401K, etc. to live on. It will take some time to get manufacturing, etc. up to speed. When these people do go back to work they will need to build up their savings and only purchase the very needed items, and a Sundancer is not one of them. Therefore, the value of boats will go down as the unemployment numbers increase, and will stay down even when people start to go back to work. I believe that will be the time to buy.
 
I have already had it. It was a mild 3 day event for my body chemistry. I could have gone to work on my worst day, but was not scheduled. I rode my horse for 2 hours. A dry cough lingered for another weak. A 102.3 fever late afternoon, was gone overnight. A case of the shakes for a couple of hours as my body fought it. I am 57.
 

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