Gulf Coasties

Boaters, from the Panhandle to the Keys. Now is the time to prepare you boats. East Coasters, keep a good eye on this new storm. Be very sure to read the Hurricane Prep Thread.

She is looking to be a very strong storm. Don’t wait!

If you are new to boating the list to get pulled and stored can get long (from what I’ve read in the past)

Be very sure to review that thread, now is the time to start

Pay little attention to the news feeds - they are sensationalists and gold mining for internet hits. Your local news will have specifics on process and procedure for your area.
This is the bible; reference it routinely -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

dwna1a said:

Boaters, from the Panhandle to the Keys. Now is the time to prepare you boats. East Coasters, keep a good eye on this new storm. Be very sure to read the Hurricane Prep Thread.

She is looking to be a very strong storm. Don’t wait!

If you are new to boating the list to get pulled and stored can get long (from what I’ve read in the past)

Be very sure to review that thread, now is the time to start

Click to expand...

Mine on land getting a repair. Wont launch til at least next Wednesday. I’m good.

ttmott said:

Pay little attention to the news feeds - they are sensationalists and gold mining for internet hits. Your local news will have specifics on process and procedure for your area.
This is the bible; reference it routinely -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Click to expand...

Tt, that and NOAAs weather reports for the Panhandle are what lead me to post this early today. Both seem to be pushing awareness for this storm. She looks to have the power to be a major hurricane. I hope I’m very wrong

Everything I am seeing is saying Cat 1 or 2, but then, storms change...

As of 5am this morning the projections don't look good for Tampa area.

With all the new boaters, I hope they are paying attention and have reviewed the Hurricane Prep Thread.

It’s important that they do!

When I was living in Florida I liked seeing landfall predictions right at me days out. They always move away from the early forecast bullseye. Not to say I wouldn't prepare. Never had a boat to deal with. Just had to get plenty of gas for the generator.

dwna1a said:

With all the new boaters, I hope they are paying attention and have reviewed the Hurricane Prep Thread.

It’s important that they do!

Click to expand...

There’s going to be a lot of fixer-uppers for sale out there in a couple weeks.

El Capitan said:

There’s going to be a lot of fixer-uppers for sale out there in a couple weeks.

Click to expand...

If you find any 2cyl Westerbeke engines please let me know. Many of the parts are impossible to find

Moving further north...

Ian Is Expected To Begin To Rapidly Strengthen By Tonight & Monday; Ian Is Expected To Be A Major Hurricane When It Heads For A Landfall Somewhere Near Cedar Key, Florida On Thursday
Posted on Sunday, September 25, 2022 11:32 am


Tropical Storm Ian:
11 am EDT/10 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 15.2 North Latitude, 79.8 West Longitude or about 300 miles to the south-southeast of Grand Cayman.
Maximum Winds: 50 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 Millibars or 29.56 Inches.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 14 mph.

Satellite imagery and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian is still disorganized. NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft did find that the low-level circulation is becoming better organized, however, the structure isn’t stacked as of yet. Because of this, Ian is gradually organizing for now, but I fully expect that the storm will rapidly strengthen once an inner aligned core develops, which may occur as soon as tonight.

The actual mid-level center of Ian looks to be around 15.5 North Latitude as of mid-morning Sunday. Additionally, it appears that Ian is now moving on a northwestward track based on reconnaissance data. I do think that we’ll probably see an actual surface center form right where the mid-level center is and that’s where it’ll stack and then rapidly strengthen.

Based on this, it looks likely to me that the center of Ian will pass very close to the Cayman Islands as a hurricane during Monday and then head across the western tip of Cuba as a major hurricane by Tuesday morning.

The intensity guidance continues to forecast quite a bit in the way of strengthening between later today and Wednesday morning with guidance forecasting Ian to peak at a 140 mph hurricane by Wednesday when it’s moving to the northeast across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Beyond this, the landfall strength of Ian when it comes ashore in Florida will depend on what part of Florida this storm comes ashore at. The further north that Ian tracks before making landfall over the western Florida Peninsula, the weaker it’ll probably be. The reason why is because there is likely to be strong amounts of wind shear north of about 27.5 North Latitude.

A look at the latest model guidance reveals that it appears that the GFS model is way too fast with its forecast of strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane by this time tomorrow. Based on my current analysis, I don’t believe it.

Also, it appears that the GFS model is probably way too far west in its forecast track and because of this, I do not believe its track forecast into the western and middle Florida Panhandle.

The European model guidance looks to be more realistic in what’s happening with Ian. It forecasts slower development and doesn’t show it undergoing rapid strengthening until late tonight and during Monday. Given how disorganized Ian looks right now, this seems more realistic.

As for track, the European deterministic and European ensemble model guidance are both very consistent and insistent in showing a track that brings Ian inland somewhere around Tampa, Sarasota and Bradenton on Wednesday evening. Given that the European model seems to be handling the intensity and current structure of Ian quite well, I’m leaning much more towards its idea than what the GFS model is spitting out.

It needs to be strongly emphasized that the consistency from the European model in showing a major hurricane landfall very near Tampa Bay cannot be ignored or dismissed.

A very concerning thing about a track closer to Tampa rather than up towards the Panhandle is that Ian will be very close to peak intensity with a landfall near Tampa or Cedar Key as the strong shear will not have yet begun to affect it.

Here Are My Latest Thoughts On Where I Think Ian May Make Landfall Along The West Coast Of Florida: My current thinking is for Ian to take a north-northeast track so that it passes about 75-100 miles to the west of Fort Myers during the day on Wednesday as a 130-140 mph hurricane and then passes about 50 miles to the west of the Tampa metro late Wednesday night and Thursday morning as about a 130 mph hurricane.

My Forecast Is for Ian to make landfall very near Cedar Key as about a 120 mph hurricane by about Thursday afternoon. From there, I anticipate that Ian will track northeastward and pass right over Gainesville as about a 100 mph hurricane sometime Thursday night and then possibly move right over Jacksonville by Friday morning as about an 80-90 mph hurricane.

Even though I have laid out my forecast track based on what I’m seeing in the data, I want to strongly emphasize that a track like this that parallels the west coast of Florida is extremely difficult to pin down as small changes in the storm’s heading will lead to big differences in where the center crosses the west coast of Florida. Because of this, a track as far south as a Fort Myers to Cape Canaveral route is quite possible.

MY BEST ADVICE TO YOU is to get ready if you are anywhere in Florida along and north of a line from Naples to Stuart. This ESPECIALLY includes southwest Florida and the entire west coast of Florida, including Fort Myers, Naples, Sarasota and the Tampa-St. Pete Metro where this hurricane could bring much of the west and southwest coasts of Florida a very large storm surge.

In addition, I urge everyone across Central, North & Northeast Florida, inland from the coast to be fully prepared for hurricane conditions from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night and into Friday morning.

For areas along the Space Coast and Treasure Coast of Florida, it appears that tropical storm force winds with rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches are possible from Thursday through Thursday night.

Purchase fuel, food and water NOW. I’ve been receiving many, many reports of not only long lines at gas stations, but some stations being out of fuel. I’m also getting reports of grocery stores being wiped out of water and canned food items. Unfortunately, it’s only going to get worse from here on out, especially once those watches and warnings are posted.





Model Track Forecast:


Satellite Imagery:






The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.

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Virginians watch the track of this storm closely. While it’s stain way to early to nail this down there are two tracks to watch. If it follows the track between Richmond and the mountains the residual flooding will cause some major issues along the bay for boaters. Get your boats in order. Get fuel and oil for genset, batteries, food stocks now. Water will be the big issue. If it follows the Carolina path we will be on the Western side, some storm surge wind and rains. Start your prep work now.

Don’t buy into the media hype. Watch the NOAA and NHC. Also look at CarterChap updates here and the other tread. Don’t turn your back on this one. Get ready now!