Buy a boat now with this market, or wait?

[Spark600]

I do not agree. We have not begun to see fear. No one is talking about fear, or writing about it, and it's not on the evening news. But I believe it's coming. But then I'm married - I only know what my wife tells me. LOL

The owner of my marina told me as of Friday 3/20/20 he had three calls, two said to put the boat in the back yard for the summer as they were not putting them in the water ( there for winter storage only ) and the other one said they are not taking the summer slip or putting the boat in the water for the summer.
He said he thinks he is going to be moving boat around the yard instead of putting them in the water.

 

[SkiPharmer]

I have already had it. It was a mild 3 day event for my body chemistry. I could have gone to work on my worst day, but was not scheduled. I rode my horse for 2 hours. A dry cough lingered for another weak. A 102.3 fever late afternoon, was gone overnight. A case of the shakes for a couple of hours as my body fought it. I am 57.

you tested positive?

 

[SkiPharmer]

Could be they had undiagnosed pre-existing conditions.

Undiagnosed? well sure maybe....but doubtful. We need to realize this CAN happen to ANYONE and treat it that way.

 

[El Capitan]

There will be people who are unfortunately diagnosed w congenital disease they were unaware of. This is not uncommon.

The hidden casualties are those who need other critical medical procedures that may be delayed. Their risk for sudden death increases with any delay.

The human toll will go beyond those unlucky souls w died from the virus directly.

 

[JVM225]

There will be people who are unfortunately diagnosed w congenital disease they were unaware of. This is not uncommon.

The hidden casualties are those who need other critical medical procedures that may be delayed. Their risk for sudden death increases with any delay.

The human toll will go beyond those unlucky souls w died from the virus directly.

Friend of mine died in his sleep years ago. He was 44 years old and had no history of health problems at all that he or anyone else knew of.
Turns out he had some kind of weird heart thing.
They interviewed a bunch of Dr.’s from some of our local hospitals on 60 minutes last night. When asked if she saw commonality between patients having a hard time with this thing besides age or obvious pre-existing health problems, she mentioned that one thing is obesity.
My daughter works for a large health system here. She’s on the business side, and has nothing to do with actual healthcare or patients.
She’s been working long hours, 7 days a week, from home since this started.
They asked her Saturday to give first and second choices of hospitals in the system she would prefer to be redeployed to. Looks like they might have non medical people come in to start to provide some kind of operational support to medical personnel.
We’re a bit worried because she has asthma.

 

[El Capitan]

Friend of mine died in his sleep years ago. He was 44 years old and had no history of health problems at all that he or anyone else knew of.
Turns out he had some kind of weird heart thing.
They interviewed a bunch of Dr.’s from some of our local hospitals on 60 minutes last night. When asked if she saw commonality between patients having a hard time with this thing besides age or obvious pre-existing health problems, she mentioned that one thing is obesity.
My daughter works for a large health system here. She’s on the business side, and has nothing to do with actual healthcare or patients.
She’s been working long hours, 7 days a week, from home since this started.
They asked her Saturday to give first and second choices of hospitals in the system she would prefer to be redeployed to. Looks like they might have non medical people come in to start to provide some kind of operational support to medical personnel.
We’re a bit worried because she has asthma.

My daughter suffered from croup when she was 7-8 and finally diagnosed w asthma.

This is a significant condition just for seasonal flu.

If at all possible she should be exempt due to a predisposition to respiratory complications.

She should speak to her supervisor and get this on record as well as consult w her doctor.

My best advice.

 

[Shaps]

I agree w the comments about fear. But I believe greed is more powerful especially in Wallstreet.

The reason I believe we’ll have a V shaped rebound is that the current economy dropped due to the impact of the virus and not the typical economic triggers.

The economy was roaring and still growing therefore my logic informs me that as soon as the virus and related fears subside traders will scoop large buys at value and the Market will return.

As companies announce reopening plans and dates the improvements will begin before people actually show up for work.

Flights will be booked in advance. Everyone who cancelled spring break will want a good summer vacation.

Travel and tourism will be a little delayed but will come back just in time for summer vacation season.

Interest rates will be low and those who didn’t lose their jobs will buy the new car/truck/house and by Fall especially pre-flu season things will be 90% back which was pretty damn good.

These are forward looking statements and not intended to be financial advise. Past performance is no predictor of future performance.

Sorry for the delayed response...
Not to sound all doom and gloom on the economy, but i do think we could go right past a recession and be in a depression. 15-20% unemployment, negative growth, etc.

And with all due respect, it seems to me a V shaped recovery and what it implies seems overly optimistic.
Look at it just from a simplistic consumption point of view, let's say you used to go to the movies once a week and out for dinner twice a week.
You have done neither for a month and won't for the foreseeable future. Once this is over, are you going to make up for all the movies you missed by going to the movies 16 days straight? Same for restaurants, etc.

Just one opinion...

 

[El Capitan]

Of course the recovery will be a process not an event.

The economy was hot before all this so all the fundamentals will rebound mostly due to Federal policies-which is what compelled the economy to begin with.

None of those dynamics have or will change.

 

[Shaps]

Of course the recovery will be a process not an event.

The economy was hot before all this so all the fundamentals will rebound mostly due to Federal policies-which is what compelled the economy to begin with.

None of those dynamics have or will change.

Our economy was 'priced to perfection', having gone the longest time ever recorded without a crisis or blow up.
I agree, the Fed programs should help mute the damage but i fear it wont be enough.

companies that take bailouts wont be allowed to do stock buybacks, think how much of the stock mkt rise has been based on share buybacks...

 

[El Capitan]

Keep in mind the White House will instigate a separate stimulus aimed directly at companies.

The Cares Act is all about liquidity to persons who’ve lost their jobs and small businesses to continue to pay payrolls. These are government backed SBA loans that can be converted to Grants.

The latter is aimed right at the middle class and small businesses as a short term bridge. This way people will actually have jobs to come back to.

Restarting the economic engine will take a little time simply due to its scale and natural cash flow lag but it will most definitely rebound.

The economy has always rebounded historically. It’s simply a process plus it’s natural function under current policies.

 

[Shaps]

Keep in mind the White House will instigate a separate stimulus aimed directly at companies.

The Cares Act is all about liquidity to persons who’ve lost their jobs and small businesses to continue to pay payrolls. These are government backed SBA loans that can be converted to Grants.

The latter is aimed right at the middle class and small businesses as a short term bridge. This way people will actually have jobs to come back to.

Restarting the economic engine will take a little time simply due to its scale and natural cash flow lag but it will most definitely rebound.

The economy has always rebounded historically. It’s simply a process plus it’s natural function under current policies.

Did not mean to imply the economy will never recover. It will. It was originally discussed this would happen reasonably quickly.

it won't.

Look at how long it took to recover from the banking/credit crisis. This is a global recession heading to depression.

 

[sbw1]

I am curious to hear thoughts/opinions on buying/selling a boat in this bear market?.

They are toys unless you earn your living on them. So, it all depends on the strength of your balance sheet. Only you can judge if it makes sense. Ideally, boats should represent a very small part of your net worth. That way, if something goes wrong that is expensive to fix, you just fix it and move on with things. If your security is compromised by a black swan event, best not buy a boat. If you can afford the toy, buy it! We bought our boats when times were tough and got pretty good deals on them.

 

[El Capitan]

Did not mean to imply the economy will never recover. It will. It was originally discussed this would happen reasonably quickly.

it won't.

Look at how long it took to recover from the banking/credit crisis. This is a global recession heading to depression.

I respectfully disagree.

This “economy” did not suffer the underlying fatal flaws that that one did.

This is a completely different slowdown due to external force not due to economic malfunction.

 

[northern]

We are in our 70ies and seen may ups and downs. People are over extended to the point most working people need two incomes to live as the want. When it goes to one income things fall apart. Things that are not required to feed, cloth and shelter will be sold. People will hold on as long as they can and then take what ever they can get. This I feel will not happen until the fall. So if I was going to replace the boat I would wait to September. I hope I am wrong and things return to normal but; with the oil war and large personal debt I do not see a good short term outcome.

 

[El Capitan]

Define short term. Even us older folks have fallen into the instant or real time timeframe for everything.

This rebound will be swift but swift means longer than it took to shut down the economy.

The government has stepped in like never in our history. The Cures Act, the Payroll Protection Act and the guaranteed support to the uninsured.

That plus the coming bailout to the airline industry, leisure and travel, oil companies and guaranteed loan backing will make for a recovery that will occur within 3 fiscal quarters not years.

 

[pyro]

Our marinas around here are nearly shut down. Furloughed technicians, skeleton crews. All in a very warm March/April where the marinas should be jammed with work. There is a risk that they shut down the marinas, public docks, and boat gathering at common islands, etc. Recreational boating is a luxury, and at this point it's unclear what type of access we will have in the summer. Announcements have gone out this week that public parks around me are closed through summer.

People on the fence of buying, will no doubt way a year to see what happens - I would.

 

[northern]

EI
Short term is different for everyone. I feel short term is the length of time one can survive in their present situation without having to change life style. Governments are spending a lot to try to stabilize things. They spent a lot in 2008 to fix one section of the economy but; the virus is effecting all world economies. If people do not buy new pencils the people making them will not be able to afford new erasers. I hope you are correct and things get better quickly. We are but two people who are locked in their home getting groceries delivered. We are not spending 4K a month on discretionary items like restaurants, garden supplies, fuel, travel and purchase of a new car. All our friends are in the same situation.

 

[Golfman25]

EI
Short term is different for everyone. I feel short term is the length of time one can survive in their present situation without having to change life style. Governments are spending a lot to try to stabilize things. They spent a lot in 2008 to fix one section of the economy but; the virus is effecting all world economies. If people do not buy new pencils the people making them will not be able to afford new erasers. I hope you are correct and things get better quickly. We are but two people who are locked in their home getting groceries delivered. We are not spending 4K a month on discretionary items like restaurants, garden supplies, fuel, travel and purchase of a new car. All our friends are in the same situation.

Not to mention the debt load we'll need to pay off. Taxes are going to be crushing and an anchor on future growth.

 

[Gary B]

Not to mention the debt load we'll need to pay off. Taxes are going to be crushing and an anchor on future growth.

I completely agree. Taxes in states like NY are already out of control causing people to flee to lower tax states. Prior to the pandemic NY had a deficit in the billions!
There is no question that each state needs to spend right now on what is needed to help their citizens through the Pandemic. Unfortunately, this is likely to cause significantly increased in taxes. This will make things more difficult for many particularly in the states with already high taxes. This may hurt many businesses especially ones that are considered “discretionary“ spending like boating once this is over.

 

[JVM225]

I completely agree. Taxes in states like NY are already out of control causing people to flee to lower tax states. Prior to the pandemic NY had a deficit in the billions!
There is no question that each state needs to spend right now on what is needed to help their citizens through the Pandemic. Unfortunately, this is likely to cause significantly increased in taxes. This will make things more difficult for many particularly in the states with already high taxes. This may hurt many businesses especially ones that are considered “discretionary“ spending like boating once this is over.

Taxes in NY are insane now. I’m afraid it’s going to get much worse after this.
The state had already been taking in billions less in tax revenue as a result of the flight of actual net taxpayers (those who pay in more than they take) to lower tax states over recent years.
An even heavier tax burden and more flight from the downstate area due to expanded remote working and people just wanting to add more space between themselves and their neighbors because of this pandemic experience may be the final nails in the coffin.
I know several young Manhattan dwellers who have now committed to fleeing NY as soon as this is all over. They don’t want to relive this experience.
If Cuomo was smart he would be pulling out all the stops to spread out the population more evenly around the state.
Lots of beautiful open space and reasonable property values in upstate areas that have been devastated by loss of manufacturing jobs.
Some in existing cities/suburbs and lots in rural areas.
Making NY more tax friendly to businesses and encouraging remote workers to consider upstate areas would be a good start, but unfortunately those don’t align with Democrat or Progressive values.