The truth about wearing a mask -finally

[PeteL]

If you allow the entire population to be exposed, then the number represents how many might die.

What?? So...the whole population...all 327Million of us are going to get sick if we don't lockdown and wear masks???? Please tell me you are joking....or you like having your liberty curtailed to prevent catching something that will in all likelihood not kill you.


Today CDC reported 11,300,365 cases (Positive Tests) and 247,834 Deaths attributed to COVID...2.19% Death Rate...or 98% Survival Rate (your choice)

 

[alnav]

What?? So...the whole population...all 327Million of us are going to get sick if we don't lockdown and wear masks???? Please tell me you are joking....or you like having your liberty curtailed to prevent catching something that will in all likelihood not kill you.


Today CDC reported 11,300,365 cases (Positive Tests) and 247,834 Deaths attributed to COVID...2.19% Death Rate...or 98% Survival Rate (your choice)

So, what's your prediction for deaths if we follow your prescription?

 

[PeteL]

So, what's your prediction for deaths if we follow your prescription?

I am not a prognosticator, but I suspect that the death rate (deaths v. cases) will probably continue to go down as treatment regimens, and the vaccines improve. We are at a point that with targeted measures on the most vulnerable we can learn to live with this virus, like many other viruses. The positive side of this episode may be that people have become a bit better at social hygiene and may improve the overall health of the country. But this is not the deadly virus we thought it was earlier in the year. Nothing in my understanding of the virus and the associated infection and death rates warrants the continued lockdowns, cancellations etc.

 

[OllieC]

..or you like having your liberty curtailed to prevent catching something that will in all likelihood not kill you.

This.

It's easy to shut down private business if you've never owned or operated one.

 

[alnav]

This.

It's easy to shut down private business if you've never owned or operated one.

As owner and operator of a private business, I agree.

 

[alnav]

I am not a prognosticator, but I suspect that the death rate (deaths v. cases) will probably continue to go down as treatment regimens, and the vaccines improve. We are at a point that with targeted measures on the most vulnerable we can learn to live with this virus, like many other viruses. The positive side of this episode may be that people have become a bit better at social hygiene and may improve the overall health of the country. But this is not the deadly virus we thought it was earlier in the year. Nothing in my understanding of the virus and the associated infection and death rates warrants the continued lockdowns, cancellations etc.

It's true that the mortality rate from the disease has gone down but entirely wrong to say it's not still deadly. 1964 souls just yesterday would want to argue with you about that.
To answer my own question, IHME, the modelers the White House rely on, predict about 600K total deaths, just by March 1, if current mandates are eased or 375K more deaths that have been experienced to date. If mask-wearing were universal, they predict about 370K total deaths by March 1, or 120K additional.
I hope it turns out not to be true, but indications are we are entering a much more deadly phase of the pandemic. We've already exceeded by far the case numbers seen early on and in the summer. We have now exceeded the number of deaths per day experienced in the summer. Henceforward, we are likely to see death numbers that will be much higher seen in the spring.

 

[PeteL]

It's true that the mortality rate from the disease has gone down but entirely wrong to say it's not still deadly. 1964 souls just yesterday would want to argue with you about that.
To answer my own question, IHME, the modelers the White House rely on, predict about 600K total deaths, just by March 1, if current mandates are eased or 375K more deaths that have been experienced to date. If mask-wearing were universal, they predict about 370K total deaths by March 1, or 120K additional.
I hope it turns out not to be true, but indications are we are entering a much more deadly phase of the pandemic. We've already exceeded by far the case numbers seen early on and in the summer. We have now exceeded the number of deaths per day experienced in the summer. Henceforward, we are likely to see death numbers that will be much higher seen in the spring.

So the model says the death rate is going to double between now and march? Almost 3000/day would be needed to make that projection. That seems excessive, and the track record for models has been less than stellar. I tend to trust the outcomes, not the projections. The death rate has been fairly steady at 1-2% since I have been watching. I also believe that we can substantially open the economy, reduce restrictions, and protect the most vulnerable (who also make up the vast majority of the deaths) ... To continue as we are and where we seem to be heading denies that any progress has been made. We are hurting more than we are helping. It is sad that 1964 people just died with or of COVID, but what about the 327 Million who haven't died? Don't they deserve to live, and live without fear? Also is this going to be the new gold-standard for viruses or the flu? This was way overplayed for way too long....15 days has become 9 months... 30- more days will become ... what years??? Have we not learned enough about COVID to manage the problem with targeted measures?? 80 percent of the deaths happened to those over 65 years old, the older the population, the more lethal the virus is. So with that data, we know where to focus control efforts. Managing our interactions with the most vulnerable, and protecting them seems to be the responsible course of action.

 

[aerobat]

if you let corona run completely free current knowledge tells us 60-70 % percent of population will get infected before the virus stops due to herd immunity .

in usa case :
~ 195-230 millions infections .
~ 2% death rate means 3.9- 4.6 millions deaths .

add further to this an completely overhelmed health care system where many people will not get any medical treatment at all so for sure the mortality rate will not stay at 2% in this scenario.

i think this is simply unacceptable .

 

[PeteL]

Since we are talking about lethality:
Death Rates by age. (Cases v. Death)
18-29 y/o 977 deaths.... .04% mortality
30-39 y/o 2,376 deaths.... .16% mortality
40-49y/o 5,631 deaths..... .43% mortality
50-64y/o 27,690 deaths.. 1.5% mortality

This tells me that for large portion of the population, those who "get" (test positive for) COVID are not dying. Why should they be placed under strict restrictions? I would argue, and if I had the time, could probably prove that these people are dying due to suicide, accidents and other reasons at a far greater rate than COVID.

 

[PeteL]

if you let corona run completely free current knowledge tells us 60-70 % percent of population will get infected before the virus stops due to herd immunity .

in usa case :
~ 195-230 millions infections .
~ 2% death rate means 3.9- 4.6 millions deaths .

add further to this an completely overhelmed health care system where many people will not get any medical treatment at all so for sure the mortality rate will not stay at 2% in this scenario.

i think this is simply unacceptable .

In a vacuum, that may be the case, but not coupled with improved treatment, and the potential vaccines. I don't think the infection rate will ever get to that level. And I am not advocating "letting the virus run free" but we can use what we know to protect those most likely to die....the age groups I just listed are just not dying from COVID, yet they represent the lions share of those infected (positive tests)

The 18-64 y/o age group represents 75.9% of the cases, but a fraction of the deaths. (20% of the deaths)

 

[OllieC]

 

[Golfman25]

In a vacuum, that may be the case, but not coupled with improved treatment, and the potential vaccines. I don't think the infection rate will ever get to that level. And I am not advocating "letting the virus run free" but we can use what we know to protect those most likely to die....the age groups I just listed are just not dying from COVID, yet they represent the lions share of those infected (positive tests)

The 18-64 y/o age group represents 75.9% of the cases, but a fraction of the deaths. (20% of the deaths)

This. You guys are arguing in the past. We are 2 weeks away from 20 million people starting vaccination. With millions to follow each month. More importantly, Lilly's monoclonal antibody treatment is being delivered now, with Regeneron's on the way. These are all game changers, with in the next 4-8 weeks will change the numbers dramatically.

 

[Woody]

This. You guys are arguing in the past. We are 2 weeks away from 20 million people starting vaccination. With millions to follow each month. More importantly, Lilly's monoclonal antibody treatment is being delivered now, with Regeneron's on the way. These are all game changers, with in the next 4-8 weeks will change the numbers dramatically.

I think SeaRay owners over 70 should be in the first tier of vaccinations so virus concerns aren't a wet blanket on our boating next summer.

 

[PeteL]

I think SeaRay owners over 70 should be in the first tier of vaccinations so virus concerns aren't a wet blanket on our boating next summer.

Best suggestion yet!

 

[aerobat]

but not coupled with improved treatment, and the potential vaccines.

lol... good morning - that is what the world tries to achieve !

until a proven treatment and/or vaccines are widely available we struggle with middle age weapons like quarantine .

 

[alnav]

This. You guys are arguing in the past. We are 2 weeks away from 20 million people starting vaccination. With millions to follow each month. More importantly, Lilly's monoclonal antibody treatment is being delivered now, with Regeneron's on the way. These are all game changers, with in the next 4-8 weeks will change the numbers dramatically.

Magical thinking, at least in the short term. The growing infection numbers we are seeing today are people who caught the virus a week or more ago. The deaths are people who were infected a month or more ago. If vaccinations were to start today, immunity wouldn't kick in until after New Year's. The monoclonal antibody therapies are only available in very small numbers of treatments as yet. Like I said, I hope I am wrong but I expect the next couple of months to be brutal. The late winter and early spring should show great improvements but it will be ugly until then.

 

[PeteL]

lol... good morning - that is what the world tries to achieve !

until a proven treatment and/or vaccines are widely available we struggle with middle age weapons like quarantine .

So the medical community has not learned anything over the last 9 months? Survival rate has not improved? The cool thing about medicine and doctors is it is evidence based learning...Hospitalizations are getting shorter. The anticipatged ventilator shortage did not happen, hospitals were not overrun....and that was when we did not know anything about this virus....the trend of improved treatment will continue....and the most infected are still not going to die..

 

[PeteL]

Magical thinking, at least in the short term. The growing infection numbers we are seeing today are people who caught the virus a week or more ago. The deaths are people who were infected a month or more ago. If vaccinations were to start today, immunity wouldn't kick in until after New Year's. The monoclonal antibody therapies are only available in very small numbers of treatments as yet. Like I said, I hope I am wrong but I expect the next couple of months to be brutal. The late winter and early spring should show great improvements but it will be ugly until then.

You must really like being scared.....The numbers over the last year just don't warrant the fear

 

[Iprof]

So the medical community has not learned anything over the last 9 months? Survival rate has not improved? The cool thing about medicine and doctors is it is evidence based learning...Hospitalizations are getting shorter. The anticipatged ventilator shortage did not happen, hospitals were not overrun....and that was when we did not know anything about this virus....the trend of improved treatment will continue....and the most infected are still not going to die..

Hospitals are being over run, every 6 days 1,000,000 more cases of Covid-19 are confirmed and we are bordering on 2,000 deaths a day. Other than that the votes are being confirmed and we are moving closer to Dec 14th .

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...surging-where-are-hospitals-reaching-capacity

 

[PeteL]

Positive tests are not cases....98%survival rate