The "virus" What are your thoughts

[Woody]

I would restate that as "Confirmed cases" Comparing actual cases (which we don't know) against the deaths will yield an entirely different ratio than comparing confirmed cases against deaths.

For this reason any death rate percentage you hear touted, is absolutely meaningless because we don't know how many cases there actually are, given the extreme dearth of testing.

@bobeast - True, but I would also caution that we don't know the actual death rate either. In other words, people that have died and not attributed to this virus. I think it's likely that the number of actual deaths is higher as well...

I dunno guys, I can think of many ways to complicate this discussion. What we might want to specifically learn about this virus certainly would have impact on how we test and interpret the results.

I'd keep things simple, for most us regular folks, the numbers El Capitan posted have a use and a meaning. Think of it as a thermometer....mercury in the glass tube, little lines along it's length, but with no numbers/no scale. Today I can see it's 5 lines hotter than yesterday I just don't know the actual temperature.

 

[RBB]

I dunno guys, I can think of many ways to complicate this discussion. What we might want to specifically learn about this virus certainly would have impact on how we test and interpret the results.

I'd keep things simple, for most us regular folks, the numbers El Capitan posted have a use and a meaning. Think of it as a thermometer....mercury in the glass tube, little lines along it's length, but with no numbers/no scale. Today I can see it's 5 lines hotter than yesterday I just don't know the actual temperature.

I agree. There is no doubt that there is
Multiples of more cases just not confirmed. The mortality rate is what I assume to be a pretty accurate count.
By this I still think the death rate is lower than reported, especially when you look at deaths that had pre existing conditions.
I will also add that based on news today it looks like the USA has one of the lowest mortality rates in the world.
Based on that I think we have done a great job fighting this.

 

[Iprof]

I agree. There is no doubt that there is
Multiples of more cases just not confirmed. The mortality rate is what I assume to be a pretty accurate count.
By this I still think the death rate is lower than reported, especially when you look at deaths that had pre existing conditions.
I will also add that based on news today it looks like the USA has one of the lowest mortality rates in the world.
Based on that I think we have done a great job fighting this.

The US mortality rate is at 1.7448% at the time of this post. Containment and flattening the curve are critical if this get into 1,000,000 or more in the US the morality rate will increase. The resources are just not there to save lives.
Last Friday in north Lakeland Fl you would never had though it was any different than a typical rush hour. Staying at home and social distancing seemed non existent.

 

[DWABoat]

The US mortality rate is at 1.7448% at the time of this post. Containment and flattening the curve are critical if this get into 1,000,000 or more in the US the morality rate will increase. The resources are just not there to save lives.
Last Friday in north Lakeland Fl you would never had though it was any different than a typical rush hour. Staying at home and social distancing seemed non existent.

I have a friend police officer in a small town near Corpus Christi. He spent the weekend running people off from closed parks and fishing piers because they just can’t seem to miss a weekend of fishing or picnicking. The worst thing is, the people visiting his small town, where there are no reported cases, are from the big cities where there are cases like Corpus, San Antonio, and Austin just coming in for the day or weekend to fish. Incredible. Just stay home and do nothing. Too much to ask.

 

[DWABoat]

Can someone with specialized medical knowledge give me a fourth grade explanation of why the drastically varied opinions on Hydroxychloroquine use, please?

Does it work or not?
Some are saying it works great while some are saying do not use it.

 

[Blueone]

Can someone with specialized medical knowledge give me a fourth grade explanation of why the drastically varied opinions on Hydroxychloroquine use, please?

Does it work or not?
Some are saying it works great while some are saying do not use it.

The fish tank cleaner version ....kills you.... the real version saves you

 

[Iprof]

Can someone with specialized medical knowledge give me a fourth grade explanation of why the drastically varied opinions on Hydroxychloroquine use, please?

Does it work or not?
Some are saying it works great while some are saying do not use it.

If it worked the White House would have tankers of it headed to every city town or village to save lives.

 

[DWABoat]

If it worked the White House would have tankers of it headed to every city town or village to save lives.

But I saw where Dr Fauci said he would prescribe it for his patients. Somewhat of an endorsement.
I guess it just has not been proven medically to work?

 

[Blueone]

But I saw where Dr Fauci said he would prescribe it for his patients. Somewhat of an endorsement.
I guess it just has not been proven medically to work?

They are using it in our hospitals and it’s working.... but not using it all the time.... someone suggested they don’t have enough of the medication..

 

[Blueone]

My daughter the nurse In Indy is on a virus floor... today a doctor and a respiratory tech on her floor just got diagnosed with the virus... they get all the best PPE.... my daughter is back to a mask a shift... they are talking about two day gowns she will know Thursday.... not good again

 

[KevinC]

Can someone with specialized medical knowledge give me a fourth grade explanation of why the drastically varied opinions on Hydroxychloroquine use, please?

Does it work or not?
Some are saying it works great while some are saying do not use it.

It's all about FDA rules and approvals. French study says yes. FDA wants trials run for approved use. Right now its authorization is for compassionate care. Meaning doctors can use to treat when case is bad.

The combo with zpak seem amazing and most doctors agree. Some doctors are even using themselves for the profalactic benefits under a different name (IIRC primaquine)

Trials are running in NY and and I would expect if they align with the French study we will see a big push of the drug earlier in the treatment.

The problem is there is no live trial vs placebo to measure the benefits for the FDA. The good news is each drug is already approved and safety teated for dosing and relatively cheap.

-Kevin

 

[SkiPharmer]

It's all about FDA rules and approvals. French study says yes. FDA wants trials run for approved use. Right now its authorization is for compassionate care. Meaning doctors can use to treat when case is bad.

The combo with zpak seem amazing and most doctors agree. Some doctors are even using themselves for the profalactic benefits under a different name (IIRC primaquine)

Trials are running in NY and and I would expect if they align with the French study we will see a big push of the drug earlier in the treatment.

The problem is there is no live trial vs placebo to measure the benefits for the FDA. The good news is each drug is already approved and safety teated for dosing and relatively cheap.

-Kevin

We are using these drugs as much as possible in patients who are critically ill. This drug is not super safe for everyone to take who has a cough. "seem amazing and most doctors agree" is hardly true. The French study was done with 36 patients (hardly a number) and now the problem is we cannot get the drug because everyone wants it. yes, there are physicians who are trying to hoard it for themselves and family. These physicians should be reported to the Board. Here is the study https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996

 

[Golfman25]

Can someone with specialized medical knowledge give me a fourth grade explanation of why the drastically varied opinions on Hydroxychloroquine use, please?

Does it work or not?
Some are saying it works great while some are saying do not use it.

There is a ton of anecdotal evidence out there. The best one is the small French study here: https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/f...ibiotic-combo-could-reduce-covid-19-duration/
That Dr. apparently did a follow up study with similar results, although his "peers" are pounding on him because it's not scientific enough. I would say there is so much smoke, all the study will show is we have a fire. Or, the old "if it saves one life" mantra. As stated above, they are giving it to critical patients under compassionate use -- but that may be too late. If you give it right away, you may keep people out of the hospital. The FDA is killing us.

Now follow the money. It's a generic drug, cheap. The powers that be would rather have an newly developed expensive life saving drug. Thank god Trump is pushing it. Manufacturers have ramped up while it's being studied.

Remember one thing. All the experts told you that a mask won't help. Yet the evidence out of Asia suggests it helps a lot.

 

[Golfman25]

I have a friend police officer in a small town near Corpus Christi. He spent the weekend running people off from closed parks and fishing piers because they just can’t seem to miss a weekend of fishing or picnicking. The worst thing is, the people visiting his small town, where there are no reported cases, are from the big cities where there are cases like Corpus, San Antonio, and Austin just coming in for the day or weekend to fish. Incredible. Just stay home and do nothing. Too much to ask.

Look I get it that they wan't us all to social distance. But two dudes fishing, or a couple running/walking along a bike path is hardly the problem. Large groups outside is a problem I get.

My tin foil hat is out these days. They are not telling us something. Why do I have to be 6 feet away from somebody? The say it's because of a cough. So riddle me this -- how often in the past 5 years have you been with someone who just coughed in your face? It's just not that common. I am beginning to believe this is spread via the air and they f'd up by telling us masks where useless.

 

[SkiPharmer]

There is a ton of anecdotal evidence out there. The best one is the small French study here: https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/f...ibiotic-combo-could-reduce-covid-19-duration/
That Dr. apparently did a follow up study with similar results, although his "peers" are pounding on him because it's not scientific enough. I would say there is so much smoke, all the study will show is we have a fire. Or, the old "if it saves one life" mantra. As stated above, they are giving it to critical patients under compassionate use -- but that may be too late. If you give it right away, you may keep people out of the hospital. The FDA is killing us.

Now follow the money. It's a generic drug, cheap. The powers that be would rather have an newly developed expensive life saving drug. Thank god Trump is pushing it. Manufacturers have ramped up while it's being studied.

Remember one thing. All the experts told you that a mask won't help. Yet the evidence out of Asia suggests it helps a lot.

The FDA is not making hospitals follow any guidelines with the use of this drug. Our system wide Hospital system where I work came up with our own protocol/order set developed by infectious disease docs and pharmacists. If you give it to someone to “keep them out of the hospital” even tho it may not improve their outcome (aka they recover fine at home) and then you run out of it for people who are on vents...this is all new for everyone. Our country was EXTREMELY unprepared for this sort of thing and I assure you us hospital workers are doing the best we can with what we have. We feel like we are going to war and they gave us a BB gun and said figure it out.

 

[El Capitan]

We now have point of care testing. We’re testing 50,000 people a day. Results return in 15 minutes. This is a game changer and my hope is that the death ratio will reveal itself to be <1% as many health officials I speak to suspect.

There are pockets or clusters or hot zones w higher mortality rates.

We have approximately 16-18 states w no covid reported so a glimmer of good news.

We are also launching random sampling. This will augment accuracy of data and is believed will prove much lower death rate.

Keep in mind we only test symptomatic patients. This yields a higher probability of positive test yet that has not been the case.

Once random testing gets traction all the percentages will be far more accurate.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Blueone]

This is my daughter going into a ventilator room ...her face mask is one day old.....she has 24 ventilator patients with the virus...

 

[Blueone]

This is my daughter going into a ventilator room ...her face mask is one day old.....she has 24 ventilator patients with the virus...

View attachment 81301

These are the heros

 

[susanandlance]

This is my daughter going into a ventilator room ...her face mask is one day old.....she has 24 ventilator patients with the virus...

View attachment 81301

May she stay safe and healthy Craig, she's definitely a hero in my book!!

 

[Great lakes pirate]

@Creekwood - I'm going to ask a common sense question - Why didn't she just stay put for another month? That would have been my guidance....I believe the outcomes will be far different a few months from now.

@Great lakes pirate - You don't know what's going on back channels and I think he comments were reference to the profiteering / pricing GM was trying to charge for them.

I think they jacked the price up.

GM is building these units at cost.