The "virus" What are your thoughts

Turning back to the financial effect of this outbreak. My firm is forecasting a global depression that will last deep into 2021 with enormous economic impacts in terms of catastrophic job losses, the collapse of any consumer spending recovery (due to bankruptcies and job losses) until 2021. I hope they are wrong.
I would hope you hope they are wrong.... what is this crystal ball they are using that can predict the future?....there are so many unknowns right now that seems a little drastic and premature... just my opinion
 
I would hope you hope they are wrong.... what is this crystal ball they are using that can predict the future?....there are so many unknowns right now that seems a little drastic and premature... just my opinion
I hope you are right. We are a Global big 4 audit firm. So lots of "experts". Its based on what we are seeing with financial stress on companies that are leading to the job losses. Make 2008/2009 look like a blip and its not over. Jobs will come back, but only if the company's survive, or others can take their place. Countries are all taking on debt in order to fund the enormous bailouts/supports that are necessary. But the source for where to "borrow" from is other sovereign nations and they all have their own fiscal crisis to fund. Very quickly this will simply be a "printing money" process globally. That has never worked in the past. Leads to interest rates rising and inflation, which hurts the majority, and is a cycle hard to reverse.
 
I hope you are right. We are a Global big 4 audit firm. So lots of "experts". Its based on what we are seeing with financial stress on companies that are leading to the job losses. Make 2008/2009 look like a blip and its not over. Jobs will come back, but only if the company's survive, or others can take their place. Countries are all taking on debt in order to fund the enormous bailouts/supports that are necessary. But the source for where to "borrow" from is other sovereign nations and they all have their own fiscal crisis to fund. Very quickly this will simply be a "printing money" process globally. That has never worked in the past. Leads to interest rates rising and inflation, which hurts the majority, and is a cycle hard to reverse.
I hear what you are saying and in a normal recession you are right...but this is different ….time will tell
 
I am beginning to think some of these guys are trying to kill us. Some Dr. on TV, named Hazletine, is saying at best hydroxyclorquine will have a "mild effect" on treating the disease, and therefore we shouldn't use it. So let's see, it works, but only "mildly." Maybe he hasn't seen, but we kind of have an emergency going on. I'll take the "mild effect" over dying alone in the hospital, thank you very much.
 
I hope you are right. We are a Global big 4 audit firm. So lots of "experts". Its based on what we are seeing with financial stress on companies that are leading to the job losses. Make 2008/2009 look like a blip and its not over. Jobs will come back, but only if the company's survive, or others can take their place. Countries are all taking on debt in order to fund the enormous bailouts/supports that are necessary. But the source for where to "borrow" from is other sovereign nations and they all have their own fiscal crisis to fund. Very quickly this will simply be a "printing money" process globally. That has never worked in the past. Leads to interest rates rising and inflation, which hurts the majority, and is a cycle hard to reverse.

Do your "experts" know about the Payroll Protection Act and the Cures Act? C'mon maan!

Can we stop with the doom and gloom please?

FACT: Last Friday, the employment numbers were the same as they were 6 months ago!
Yes, unemployment is now high, but there were tons more people that entered the workforce. The industry hit the hardest is Travel and Leisure but white collar i.e. high tech job market actually added jobs!

There...and Im not a "expert"
 
I am beginning to think some of these guys are trying to kill us. Some Dr. on TV, named Hazletine, is saying at best hydroxyclorquine will have a "mild effect" on treating the disease, and therefore we shouldn't use it. So let's see, it works, but only "mildly." Maybe he hasn't seen, but we kind of have an emergency going on. I'll take the "mild effect" over dying alone in the hospital, thank you very much.

Amazing to see those who are actively fighting this.

Oh, BTW, see Andrew Cuomo's talk today on the subject. Heads will explode.
 
I am beginning to think some of these guys are trying to kill us. Some Dr. on TV, named Hazletine, is saying at best hydroxyclorquine will have a "mild effect" on treating the disease, and therefore we shouldn't use it. So let's see, it works, but only "mildly." Maybe he hasn't seen, but we kind of have an emergency going on. I'll take the "mild effect" over dying alone in the hospital, thank you very much.

Shhhh! I bet his closet is stacked with the stuff!
 
Do your "experts" know about the Payroll Protection Act and the Cures Act? C'mon maan!

Can we stop with the doom and gloom please?

FACT: Last Friday, the employment numbers were the same as they were 6 months ago!
Yes, unemployment is now high, but there were tons more people that entered the workforce. The industry hit the hardest is Travel and Leisure but white collar i.e. high tech job market actually added jobs!

There...and Im not a "expert"

I presume they have considered all of those things. The money to fund those programs has to come from somewhere. Don't shoot the messenger. I am just relaying what I am hearing. I would LOVE to hear from other experts that can predict a faster path to prosperity.
 
Turning back to the financial effect of this outbreak. My firm is forecasting a global depression that will last deep into 2021 with enormous economic impacts in terms of catastrophic job losses, the collapse of any consumer spending recovery (due to bankruptcies and job losses) until 2021. I hope they are wrong.
I think you are correct. We are but 2 and due to this virus our spending is down 4,000 a month multiply that by a couple of billion couples and you have a disaster. In WWII 46% of GDP was used for war effort this virus is 5% GDP but in the war people had a job and we were building things. We can not even build face masks in sufficient numbers in North America.
 
Hydroxychloroquine works, if it didn't politicians like Cuomo and others wouldn't be discouraging it's use to the masses and doctors wouldn't be hoarding it.

The economy. Seems like some people aren't happy unless they're miserable. The current EMPLOYMENT numbers are equal to what they were 6 months ago. Lots of new entrants into the working pool. Many of those lost their jobs.

The U.S. dollar is remains strong as hell and the preferred currency.

Travel and Leisure is the hardest hit industry. Come summer, it will be the fastest to rebound as pent up demand and summer vacations and boat cruising by owners will explode.

Interest rates will continue to be at record lows.

Infrastructure Bill is on the table = JOBS.

Cures Act and Paycheck Protection Act.

Boomerang effect on China will bring many manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.

Real Estate/housing will gain traction as those who didn't lose their jobs look to either refi or upgrade

The U.S. economy was the strongest it had ever been prior to the shut down. The economic fundamentals (unemployment) will return.

Trump will win re-election in a landslide and the stock market will skyrocket as a result - again as it did for the past 3 years.

Lots to be optimistic about....unless you don't wish to.
 
Again. Not accurate and out of context. There are specific combinations contraindicated ... never mind, I’ll let you edumacate yourself on CNN. Maybe they’ll report a fact or two.
Ahhh you so smart El Capitan, I think you should run for office......How does a REAL doctor have so much time to post BS on CSR???
 
Hydroxychloroquine works, if it didn't politicians like Cuomo and others wouldn't be discouraging it's use to the masses and doctors wouldn't be hoarding it.

The economy. Seems like some people aren't happy unless they're miserable. The current EMPLOYMENT numbers are equal to what they were 6 months ago. Lots of new entrants into the working pool. Many of those lost their jobs.

The U.S. dollar is remains strong as hell and the preferred currency.

Travel and Leisure is the hardest hit industry. Come summer, it will be the fastest to rebound as pent up demand and summer vacations and boat cruising by owners will explode.

Interest rates will continue to be at record lows.

Infrastructure Bill is on the table = JOBS.

Cures Act and Paycheck Protection Act.

Boomerang effect on China will bring many manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.

Real Estate/housing will gain traction as those who didn't lose their jobs look to either refi or upgrade

The U.S. economy was the strongest it had ever been prior to the shut down. The economic fundamentals (unemployment) will return.

Trump will win re-election in a landslide and the stock market will skyrocket as a result - again as it did for the past 3 years.

Lots to be optimistic about....unless you don't wish to.

I like your optimism. However, consumer and business demand will suffer for a while. Once you get hit and knocked out, you spend some time to recover and figure out what the hell just happened. I know for us, a manufacturing firm, it will likely be a "lost year" for us. We certainly aren't investing $500k in new equipment on a hope demand picks up. As the losses mount thru May/June, even if things bounce back the second half, the best bet is well break even by year end. Employees, even though the still have jobs, certainly are scared. They won't be spending anytime soon.
 
I know it’s bad fellas, but the sun is still coming up. I am optimistic about the near future.
My firm is not global, but I did stay at a holiday inn express last night.
It will work out.
 
Yup. Some industries are bearing the brunt of this shut down for sure. I'm looking for ways to help by buying stuff for my truck and boat and hire out some work. I just did the entire suspension on my Ford truck and the suspension shop was dead. They were very appreciative. Soon as the barn where I keep my boat off the river opens up I'll find someone to detail it and do some stuff. Those of us who can spend a little should in order to help small companies out. When we buy take out the faces of folks is heart breaking and they're so appreciative. My son even started tipping at drive thru's....its my money though ;) but its the thought that counts!
 
We have ordered out a few times in the last 3 weeks and left bigger tips than normal. $7-8 for a $20 order. Figure their tips have been cut significantly since this started
 
White lie for the doom sayers benefit.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
112,944
Messages
1,422,727
Members
60,927
Latest member
Jaguar65
Back
Top