What a positive COVID-19 test REALLY means

[El Capitan]

With the supposed spike on “COVID-19 cases” this should clarify much of the hysteria.

From CDC site.
What do your results mean?
If you test positive

• A positive test result shows you may have antibodies from an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. However, there is a chance a positive result means that you have antibodies from an infection with a virus from the same family of viruses (called coronaviruses), such as the one that causes the common cold.
  
• 
  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html

 

[Carpediem44DB]

El Capitan, Not to put too fine of a point on it but, You are addressing the anti-body test. The tests that are being done routinely to determine the active infections are different tests but I wonder if the results may be similar. I am dubious of the actual numbers that the media and government are reporting as to the actual spike in C-19 infections, it just seems too convenient to fit the current narrative but I might just be a little cynical.
Carpe Diem

 

[El Capitan]

El Capitan, Not to put too fine of a point on it but, You are addressing the anti-body test. The tests that are being done routinely to determine the active infections are different tests but I wonder if the results may be similar. I am dubious of the actual numbers that the media and government are reporting as to the actual spike in C-19 infections, it just seems too convenient to fit the current narrative but I might just be a little cynical.
Carpe Diem

PCR testing is more sensitive and desired method of testing the population.
https://www.medicaldevice-network.com/features/types-of-covid-19-test-antibody-pcr-antigen/

What is PCR testing?
“At the moment the majority of the current Covid-19 tests that all the reports are coming from are using PCR,” says University of Sussex senior lecturer in microbiology Dr Edward Wright. “They detect the genetic information of the virus, the RNA. That’s only possible if the virus is there and someone is actively infected.”

PCR tests are used to directly detect the presence of an antigen, rather than the presence of the body’s immune response, or antibodies. By detecting viral RNA, which will be present in the body before antibodies form or symptoms of the disease are present, the tests can tell whether or not someone has the virus very early on.

“PCR gives us a good indication of who is infected. They can be isolated and get in contact with people they’ve been in touch with so they can be quarantined too, just in case. That’s the true advantage of the current major diagnostic tests, you can break that transmission chain and get a clearer picture of what’s happening,” says Wright.

By scaling PCR testing to screen vast swathes of nasopharyngeal swab samples from within a population, public health officials can get a clearer picture of the spread of a disease like Covid-19 within a population.

 

[Third Edition]

Positive test results are largely irrelevant. Without a vaccine we're all gonna get it. The relevant measure is the number of ICU patients with Covid-19, and the number of deaths from Covid-19.

The surprise over spikes in positive tests is itself surprising. The lockdown was to lower the curve. When the lockdown ends the curve goes up, i.e., the number of cases goes up. DOH.

But we evidently are not seeing a corresponding spike in Covid-19 deaths (apart from NJ about 3 days ago) nor are we seeing a corresponding spike in Covid-19 ICU admissions. That is because, supposedly, younger people are getting it. And perhaps because many of the most vulnerable people have already succumbed to it.

It is to be expected the number of positive tests goes up for 2 reasons: 1) more testing; 2) ending the lockdowns.

 

[El Capitan]

I respectfully disagree.

The opening in Florida started first week in May. For the entire month there was no spike.

Then the Memorial Day weekend then mass rioting. AFTER those events we see spikes but mainly in younger populations thus the low hospital admission rate and mortality rates - typically in younger population.

The worst thing a person can do is lock themselves up inside. Not go to parks, beaches, etc.

If people are putting hope in a vaccine they’re going to be sorely disappointed at best and at worst get infected. We have had flu vaccines for decades and we still have 50,000 deaths annually.
This past flu season featured two different strains of flu virus and most people who got flu shots caught both, thinking they had relapsed.

 

[Henry Boyd]

I respectfully disagree.

The opening in Florida started first week in May. For the entire month there was no spike.

Then the Memorial Day weekend then mass rioting. AFTER those events we see spikes but mainly in younger populations thus the low hospital admission rate and mortality rates - typically in younger population.

The worst thing a person can do is lock themselves up inside. Not go to parks, beaches, etc.

If people are putting hope in a vaccine they’re going to be sorely disappointed at best and at worst get infected. We have had flu vaccines for decades and we still have 50,000 deaths annually.
This past flu season featured two different strains of flu virus and most people who got flu shots caught both, thinking they had relapsed.

You conveniently forgot to mention the knuckleheads congregating in bars and nightspots and beaches on the Memorial Day weekend. I'm guessing far more drunks than protestors. Nor did you mention the anti stay home order protestors that proceeded the BLM protests.

As for the effectiveness of Vaccines, you didn't mention that Smallpox only exists in laboratories having been completely eradicated from the human population due to vaccination.

Once again selective "facts" and mis quotes to support your tin foil hat inspired theories.

 

[MonacoMike]

Positive test results are largely irrelevant. Without a vaccine we're all gonna get it. The relevant measure is the number of ICU patients with Covid-19, and the number of deaths from Covid-19.

The surprise over spikes in positive tests is itself surprising. The lockdown was to lower the curve. When the lockdown ends the curve goes up, i.e., the number of cases goes up. DOH.

But we evidently are not seeing a corresponding spike in Covid-19 deaths (apart from NJ about 3 days ago) nor are we seeing a corresponding spike in Covid-19 ICU admissions. That is because, supposedly, younger people are getting it. And perhaps because many of the most vulnerable people have already succumbed to it.

It is to be expected the number of positive tests goes up for 2 reasons: 1) more testing; 2) ending the lockdowns.

My grand-dad said "want in one hand and spit in the other and see which one gets full first".

They are still looking for a vaccine for HIV (the V is for virus) and still are at it 40 years later. It is unlikely the Cavalry is coming...

 

[Henry Boyd]

My grand-dad said "want in one hand and spit in the other and see which one gets full first".

They are still looking for a vaccine for HIV (the V is for virus) and still are at it 40 years later. It is unlikely the Cavalry is coming...

Besides Small pox, vaccines have also eradicated Polio, Rabies, and Chicken pox successfully. These three by the way were killers and cripplers when I was a child. So while finding vaccines is not always successful, the successes have been pretty earth shattering. And writing off the process before spending some time trying is short sighted at best.

 

[MonacoMike]

Besides Small pox, vaccines have also eradicated Polio, Rabies, and Chicken pox successfully. These three by the way were killers and cripplers when I was a child. So while finding vaccines is not always successful, the successes have been pretty earth shattering. And writing off the process before spending some time trying is short sighted at best.

Not writing off any processes, just being real as to when if ever a vaccine may come about. I also question the if the finance side of a China flu vaccine would be economically viable for pharma. Once we reach herd immunity demand will be nonexistent. This is not a continuing demand drug like a new blood pressure medicine.

 

[El Capitan]

Polio and chicken pox vaccines including boosters are still administered.

They have not been eliminated via the vaccines.
Nor will any flu including COVID-19

Little science and facts there for ya.

 

[Henry Boyd]

Not writing off any processes, just being real as to when if ever a vaccine may come about. I also question the if the finance side of a China flu vaccine would be economically viable for pharma. Once we reach herd immunity demand will be nonexistent. This is not a continuing demand drug like a new blood pressure medicine.

Wrong, on the last one. With herd immunity Covid does not go away, or become any less lethal, it just effects fewer people. BTW since having Covid does not create a hereditary immunization, every new person born becomes susceptible, and it becomes more damaging as people age, or develop asthma and other respiratory issues. So yes, there will be a continuing demand.

 

[MonacoMike]

Wrong, on the last one. With herd immunity Covid does not go away, or become any less lethal, it just effects fewer people. BTW since having Covid does not create a hereditary immunization, every new person born becomes susceptible, and it becomes more damaging as people age, or develop asthma and other respiratory issues. So yes, there will be a continuing demand.

Henry, the high horse does not become you. I said, " Once we reach herd immunity demand will be nonexistent" That is not wrong statistically. There may be some residual demand but nothing big. In the future young will likely be exposed when they are young and the old will have antibodies from when they were young. I very much doubt C-19 vaccine will be required to go to school in 10 years.

 

[Henry Boyd]

Polio and chicken pox vaccines including boosters are still administered.

They have not been eliminated via the vaccines.
Nor will any flu including COVID-19

Little science and facts there for ya.

Oh I’m sorry doctor, but wait, you’re not a doctor you are an IT guy. But anyways, from your lips to God’s ear, there shall be no Covid vaccine! El Capitan has decreed it! All hail and bow before the all knowing all powerful Oz!

And returning to reality, while Polio and chicken pox haven’t reached the same stage as smallpox, the vaccinations are an effective deterrent.

 

[Golfman25]

Henry, the high horse does not become you. I said, " Once we reach herd immunity demand will be nonexistent" That is not wrong statistically. There may be some residual demand but nothing big. In the future young will likely be exposed when they are young and the old will have antibodies from when they were young. I very much doubt C-19 vaccine will be required to go to school in 10 years.

Actually, I think it will be more like a flu shot -- yearly. But wtf do I know.

 

[Golfman25]

Besides Small pox, vaccines have also eradicated Polio, Rabies, and Chicken pox successfully. These three by the way were killers and cripplers when I was a child. So while finding vaccines is not always successful, the successes have been pretty earth shattering. And writing off the process before spending some time trying is short sighted at best.

Chicken pox vaccine didn't arrive until 1984. That's a long ass time do develop a vaccine. Before that parents had chicken pox parties.

 

[MonacoMike]

Actually, I think it will be more like a flu shot -- yearly. But wtf do I know.

They probably could combine it but then the company that developed it wouldn't get credit nor likely the money if it was stand alone.

 

[sbw1]

 

[Henry Boyd]

Henry, the high horse does not become you. I said, " Once we reach herd immunity demand will be nonexistent" That is not wrong statistically. There may be some residual demand but nothing big. In the future young will likely be exposed when they are young and the old will have antibodies from when they were young. I very much doubt C-19 vaccine will be required to go to school in 10 years.

Mike,

There are approximately 4 million children born in the US annually. If your argument held water there would be no need for continued polio and chickenpox vaccines. Wouldn’t you agree we should have herd immunity from those by now? We have, kind of. Herd immunity is a combination of immunity from antibodies created by surviving the disease, and the results of vaccination. In the case of polio and chicken pox, it is now controlled mostly by vaccination.

Reaching herd immunity also would require a significant portion of the population (from what I’ve read, something like 70-75%) to be immune. Without a Covid vaccine, or even effective therapies to deal with those that have it, reaching that percentage of the population could very well generate millions of deaths in this country alone.

And the payoff assumes that surviving the disease produces life long antibodies.

 

[MonacoMike]

Mike,

There are approximately 4 million children born in the US annually. If your argument held water there would be no need for continued polio and chickenpox vaccines. Wouldn’t you agree we should have herd immunity from those by now? We have, kind of. Herd immunity is a combination of immunity from antibodies created by surviving the disease, and the results of vaccination. In the case of polio and chicken pox, it is now controlled mostly by vaccination.

Reaching herd immunity also would require a significant portion of the population (from what I’ve read, something like 70-75%) to be immune. Without a Covid vaccine, or even effective therapies to deal with those that have it, reaching that percentage of the population could very well generate millions of deaths in this country alone.

And the payoff assumes that surviving the disease produces life long antibodies.

We have learned that the primary vulnerable are older and have additional comorbidities. There are exceptions to this but not statistically in the big picture. The death rate is falling as testing increases, those most vulnerable succumbed early on and we learned how to treat those sick, I really just do not see a massive death rate in the future unless there is some major mutation, which has not materialized as of yet.

 

[Golfman25]

Mike,

There are approximately 4 million children born in the US annually. If your argument held water there would be no need for continued polio and chickenpox vaccines. Wouldn’t you agree we should have herd immunity from those by now? We have, kind of. Herd immunity is a combination of immunity from antibodies created by surviving the disease, and the results of vaccination. In the case of polio and chicken pox, it is now controlled mostly by vaccination.

Reaching herd immunity also would require a significant portion of the population (from what I’ve read, something like 70-75%) to be immune. Without a Covid vaccine, or even effective therapies to deal with those that have it, reaching that percentage of the population could very well generate millions of deaths in this country alone.

And the payoff assumes that surviving the disease produces life long antibodies.

The vaccine creates the herd immunity.