Economy

firecadet613 said:
I can't even fathom that!
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It was the absolute worst time ever (save The Depression). My parents wanted to kill Regan, whom they voted for. Our business was hanging on by a thread. Capital was crushingly expensive. But one day the storm clouds receded and the sun came out. Little seedlings popped from the ground. And just like that, the 1980s economic boom took off.

Our "leaders" have put us into a position where we are going to have to take the pain to clean this mess up.
 
I just hope I don’t get boned by the mechanic when boat goes in shop next week to get prop seal fixed. Haul and block went from $10 to $12 a foot but now they include a power wash. Gonna flip a 20 to the girls to power wash the whole boat.
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I don't disagree there will be a positive turn at some point. I am an Economics major but don't need to be one to know that. My concern is time; I no longer have a lot of time on my side.

And yes, I am continuing to value cost average with my 401K and other investments I have.
 
highslice said:
Anybody remember 21% interest rates? That was the rate of my parents mortgage in 1980. We could see that again if Joe gets his way on spending.
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Yes, Yimmy Carter the peanut farmer totally fooked the economy up. Thankfully that idiot gave us Reagan. The rolling 80's were a result of Reagan tax cuts and its trickle down economics.
 
JayhawkCurtis said:
So say a guy went cash a while back, when should I, err I mean HE buy back in :rolleyes:
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I'm not a financial advisor but for me I started buying back when we got a reversal on the monthly chart but then that failed so I stopped out for a small loss and will do the same again.
Ignore my sloppy writing...lol. You can see a successful monthly reversal in 4/20 then an inside month break to the upside in 10/20 but then 2 failed reversals this year. No way to know when they will take it back up but given the economy and the state of affairs in this country I see no reason for them to run it back up yet. They had a perfect chance to do it twice this year with good setups and they couldn't do it.

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I also might have known a guy that went cash. It's not time to dip my toe back in the water. Not sure it will be at all during the admin. Just not trustworthy. But I sit by watching day by day. I will say the market is above where I thought / predicted it would be at this point. So who the fark knows?
 
I was once told that when you try to time the market, you have to be right twice: First on the time to sell, and secondly on the time to buy back in. I'm not that smart.

Jaybeaux
 
Yeah, I used to look at my accounts almost every day and have anxiety and sometime make poor, emotional decisions. The only time I look now is when I am logging in to buy. These are headlines, nothing more. Think about this decline in context. Has the market priced in the next rate hike? Hopefully, but who knows.
 
Gofirstclass said:
I learned from "The Great Recession" that if you just sit tight, no matter how far the market goes down you haven't lost a penny unless you sell, then you don't have to worry about when to get back in.

Worked then, doing the same thing now.
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This ^^^
 
I'll say this. The market started its reversal back in July with a test of the June lows. We are sitting on the trendline now. So we'll see. But it wouldn't surprise me to break that trend and go back and test the June lows again.
 
boatman37 said:
I'm not a financial advisor but for me I started buying back when we got a reversal on the monthly chart but then that failed so I stopped out for a small loss and will do the same again.
Ignore my sloppy writing...lol. You can see a successful monthly reversal in 4/20 then an inside month break to the upside in 10/20 but then 2 failed reversals this year. No way to know when they will take it back up but given the economy and the state of affairs in this country I see no reason for them to run it back up yet. They had a perfect chance to do it twice this year with good setups and they couldn't do it.

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Thing I always said about financial advisors, if they that good, why are they still working? Not taking advice from a guy that is still shlepping his butt to work every day.
 
Pirate Lady said:
Thing I always said about financial advisors, if they that good, why are they still working? Not taking advice from a guy that is still shlepping his butt to work every day.
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I don't know about that. The bank that holds our investment accounts has a strategist that advised us. He is in his mid 30s and extremely wealthy. He just loves his work. He has certainly done right by us. When I started getting nervous a few weeks ago he told me to relax and he'd handle it. Our accounts are down a small fraction of what the markets are down by percentage. The one account that I manage is down about the same % as the market. He is better at investing than I am.
 
Yeah, I disagree with that one as well. We all have our reasons for working, most for the money, and more money/growth. And you continued to work because the bonuses were so good... ;-) It's also the same reason I pay a roofer to work on my roof, a HVAC guy to work on my HVAC, etc. It's what they are good at, some better than others.

I used a UBS financial advisor when I was married and working on my own. He made my exes father a very wealthy man. I have not contributed to that account in a very long time. I started my own Ameritrade account about 15 years ago, which is doing betting than my UBS account, but's it's more aggressive and not tied to a retirement date/plan. It's doing better than my 401k account as well. By "better" I mean it has not dropped like my other accounts have in this "recession". My retirement accounts are down 10-15%, my Ameritrade account is actually up.
 
Pirate Lady said:
Thing I always said about financial advisors, if they that good, why are they still working? Not taking advice from a guy that is still shlepping his butt to work every day.
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Reminds me of the story of a very wealthy man who every FP hit him up to give them money to invest for him. His reply was yes, I will, just give me copies of your last three years of your personal tax returns showing me how you did with your own money. He didn’t even require them to have made money, just show him what they did. Not one ever did…
 
My E*Trade Roth IRA has dropped like a frickin rock because I'm VERY aggressive in it. It's not taxable so if I ever draw money out it'll be tax free.

Being that aggressive (about an 8 on a 10 scale) when this market starts to turn around my account will come roaring back again.
 
Jaybeaux said:
I was once told that when you try to time the market, you have to be right twice: First on the time to sell, and secondly on the time to buy back in. I'm not that smart.

Jaybeaux
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Oh brother, I am a complete idiot when it comes to money, I make mistakes with zeros on the end. I am very adverse to risk, that is why I went cash, (I am embarrassed to tell you when). That is also why I have been in the same job for 32 years, the devil you know kind of thing. I think my thinking about risk happened back in 01, we were owned by Coastal at the time, i had been investing in their stock thrift plan, and was doing very well, I was a younger man back then and had 180K already built up. Well Elpaso Natural gas bought us, and it was the same time as the Enron fiasco. Well Our Ceo was emailing us to ride it out, we would be fine, so I rode it all the way to the bottom and my 180K, turned in to 13 pretty damn fast. Now I am still Ok, I have been pretty much a single income family my whole adult life, I help out my kids as much as I can, but My 401K should be much brighter than it is. I have 10-15 years til retirement, and we will be fine barring some bad medical problems, I am just trying to figure out when to get back in to recoup some of what I have lost over the years. I did buy back in when covid hit, timed that pretty well, but got back out when the contested election happened, I remembered the market took a pretty good hit when the Bush/Gore contested election happened so I thought this might be the same. Nope. Anyway, I am a moron with money, I hope you dont hate me, ridicule away.
 
BillK2632 said:
An old saying “Trying to time the market is a fools errand”. A balanced portfolio and dollar cost averaging is the game that most people should and hopefully are playing with their 401k.
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In the post right before yours I already admitted I am a moron, yet you decide to rub it in??
 
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