Economy

In the post right before yours I already admitted I am a moron, yet you decide to rub it in??

Oh gosh no - not directed to you - trust me I have been on that “errand” more than once. It’s human nature - we are greedy whether we admit it or not. Remember Global Crossing? I rode it to its high - many $$$’s in gains, then rode it right back down to about nothing.
 
When it comes to individual stock investing, most of us make emotional decisions. If the goal is capital appreciation, not dividend income we should determine a sell price, whether it is 5%, 15% whatever and stick to it. In reality what most of us do is buy stocks of companies we like (I recently bought John Deer - DE - largely an emotional purchase), then we watch it. Stock goes up we are on a high, fun to see ourselves making money - stock passes that sell limit we just keep flying high -- having fun making money! Then one day the stock drops a bit - no big deal, there is always some "reason" so we hang in there - it will go back up, we like this company, we are emotionally attached to this stock! But when it doesn't, instead of selling to limit our loss, we hang on until the plane is in a nosedive and it is too late to bail out without a major loss - Tango Uniform to nothing! That's an extreme example, but you get the idea.

That's my reasoning and why I generally stick to ETF's, have an advisor and reserve "fun money" for my self directed equities.
I know there are people out there (some on here) that do quite well with their stock trading -- but those people spend a lot more time than I am willing to research, watch and make unemotional decisions on their trading.
Oh - and my last emotional trade -- sold some stock to buy a new boat!
 
Well if you believe the Fed will increase 2x before years end then that defines your strategy if you're a trader. I invest for the long term so it has no bearing on my situation. I love this dip because I accumulate more shares per $1 each month.

The next area of interest for me (no pun intended) is the RE market. As housing prices are beginning to tumble now with average rate at 6%, imagine what will happen to valuations when we get to 7%. I'll start looking then.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-yield-curve-set-invert-053806103.html
 
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Well if you believe the Fed will increase 2x before years end then that defines your strategy if you're a trader. I invest for the long term so it has no bearing on my situation. I love this dip because I accumulate more shares per $1 each month.

The next area of interest for me (no pun intended) is the RE market. As housing prices are beginning to tumble now with average rate at 6%, imagine what will happen to valuations when we get to 7%. I'll start looking then.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-yield-curve-set-invert-053806103.html
I agree. The "experts" say this will be a soft landing for real estate with values not declining much. I don't see how that possibly happens. I said in 08/09 that if I had a bunch of cash on hand I would have bought rental properties for a bargain. This time around I do have a bunch of cash on hand, so we'll see.
 
I don't disagree there will be a positive turn at some point. I am an Economics major but don't need to be one to know that. My concern is time; I no longer have a lot of time on my side.

And yes, I am continuing to value cost average with my 401K and other investments I have.
I love econ, but not enough to major in it. I could only hack it as a minor. But I know enough to understand that increased government spending is not the answer to curbing inflation.
 
Not an Econ major but …
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An old saying “Trying to time the market is a fools errand”. A balanced portfolio and dollar cost averaging is the game that most people should and hopefully are playing with their 401k.
The problem with timing the market is almost all of the recovery gains occur in a very short period of time, often just a a day or two. People see the uptick and decide it is time to get back in and they buy at the high missing the opportunity altogether. It’s best to have a well diversified portfolio that meets your long term financial requirements and stay the course. When the market rebounds you are already in for the ride. It is times like this when your find out what your tolerance for risk is. Bad time to sell.
 
Don’t look at your 401K
Too late. But just by fortune I liquidated 2 401Ks I had at former employers to transfer the funds to my IRA. I did that before the worst part of the downturn. The market tanked before I could reinvest. So I have a lot of available $$ to invest at discount prices.
 
Too late. But just by fortune I liquidated 2 401Ks I had at former employers to transfer the funds to my IRA. I did that before the worst part of the downturn. The market tanked before I could reinvest. So I have a lot of available $$ to invest at discount prices.
We just left our bank where we met to consolidate our 401ks that are over the map. The guy said what you did, especially the last sentence. He thinks now is time to put some bucks, not ALL, but a percentage to recover what lost.
 
Emotions are a funny thing, sometimes they can work for you.

We were a contract manufacturer for a company that was sold out. New owner tried to leave us but we owned the IP. We wound up divesting the CM operation and merging it with them. All recieved high paying positions and good stock options when they went IPO. A 2yr gig I figure, see what happens.
I did not like the product because they were overselling the capabilities to say the least. Did not like working with the new ownership due to ethical challenges IMO.
About 6mo after IPO, stock was rising rapidly and everyone was saying $50, $50!
I started watching it for a couple weeks, calculated what it would take to become debt free and at least double my existing retirement. Then I had my number. Ready to get out of there...if it got to my number.
It topped at around $30, I sold $2 earlier than that. Lost $$K in theory, but came in $6 above my number, it was moving fast. Very few people did this, everyone was too emotional and could not see through it. They wanted $50. The stock is under $0.40 now. They did not get $50, they got nothing.

I am seriously considering getting back in, look at the cycles over the years, this is stocks. Our rental we got 3yrs ago has been good, maybe one or two more when that cycle is right.
 
We have a low of 3596 on ES futures back in Feb 2021...yes we are close to taking out 2021 lows too (3656 would be that low). We have already taken out the Nasdaq lows (NQ) for 2021. Let's see if those hold if we get to them
 
Emotions are a funny thing, sometimes they can work for you.

We were a contract manufacturer for a company that was sold out. New owner tried to leave us but we owned the IP. We wound up divesting the CM operation and merging it with them. All recieved high paying positions and good stock options when they went IPO. A 2yr gig I figure, see what happens.
I did not like the product because they were overselling the capabilities to say the least. Did not like working with the new ownership due to ethical challenges IMO.
About 6mo after IPO, stock was rising rapidly and everyone was saying $50, $50!
I started watching it for a couple weeks, calculated what it would take to become debt free and at least double my existing retirement. Then I had my number. Ready to get out of there...if it got to my number.
It topped at around $30, I sold $2 earlier than that. Lost $$K in theory, but came in $6 above my number, it was moving fast. Very few people did this, everyone was too emotional and could not see through it. They wanted $50. The stock is under $0.40 now. They did not get $50, they got nothing.

I am seriously considering getting back in, look at the cycles over the years, this is stocks. Our rental we got 3yrs ago has been good, maybe one or two more when that cycle is right.
I find it best to keep emotions and ego out of it. They just get in the way of logic and cause bad decisions. This was drilled into me by my dad for 45 years. I have drilled it into my sons.
 
I find it best to keep emotions and ego out of it. They just get in the way of logic and cause bad decisions. This was drilled into me by my dad for 45 years. I have drilled it into my sons.
You guys are correct, I went cash because of emotions, and it cost me quite a bit, I have 10-15 years to retire, hoping to re-coup. Of course at some point the gubbment is going to look at the 401 ks of the American people and decide that is their way out of debt, so I don’t know that it is going to matter
 
The problem with timing the market is almost all of the recovery gains occur in a very short period of time, often just a a day or two. People see the uptick and decide it is time to get back in and they buy at the high missing the opportunity altogether. It’s best to have a well diversified portfolio that meets your long term financial requirements and stay the course. When the market rebounds you are already in for the ride. It is times like this when your find out what your tolerance for risk is. Bad time to sell.
Glad I stayed invested. Today was a good day to be in the market. Of course time will tell if we hit the bottom. Still……a good day.
 
What's the odds Biden starts taking credit for the market being up 5% and how great he is doing with the economy...lol
 

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