New Trucks Piling Up, Satellite Images Reveal...

[alnav]

I guess Dan is a liar too...

Is he?
Frozen Wind Farms Are Just a Small Piece of Texas’s Power Woes
"Don’t point too many fingers at Texas wind turbines, because they’re not the main reason broad swaths of the state have been plunged into darkness.
While ice has forced some turbines to shut down just as a brutal cold wave drives record electricity demand, that’s been the least significant factor in the blackouts, according to Dan Woodfin, a senior director for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates the state’s power grid."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...were-just-a-small-piece-of-texas-s-power-woes

 

[OllieC]

 

[Golfman25]

Is he?
Frozen Wind Farms Are Just a Small Piece of Texas’s Power Woes
"Don’t point too many fingers at Texas wind turbines, because they’re not the main reason broad swaths of the state have been plunged into darkness.
While ice has forced some turbines to shut down just as a brutal cold wave drives record electricity demand, that’s been the least significant factor in the blackouts, according to Dan Woodfin, a senior director for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates the state’s power grid."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...were-just-a-small-piece-of-texas-s-power-woes

Your problem is the people who put the stupid windmills in are going to support the decision no matter what. Anyone who thinks wind power is any type of an answer is a fool.

 

[alnav]

Your problem is the people who put the stupid windmills in are going to support the decision no matter what. Anyone who thinks wind power is any type of an answer is a fool.

Your problem is that you seem to think I give a crap about wind power in Texas. I was just answering the request to show whether Tucker Carlson always told the truth. But, to your point, it also seems to be that the people opposed to windmills are going to try to discredit it no matter what. Anyone who believes that problems with wind power were the primary cause of the Texas power failures is also a fool.

 

[OllieC]

I read and watched his monologue. Where was the lie? Are you and the leftist rags you post claiming that the windmills that didn’t freeze didn’t cause any blackouts? Laughable

 

[alnav]

I read and watched his monologue. Where was the lie? Are you and the leftist rags you post claiming that the windmills that didn’t freeze didn’t cause any blackouts? Laughable

It started at 5:17. He was using irony, which I know can be hard to comprehend. By saying that windmills didn't cause power outages, he was actually saying the opposite.
I agree that the windmills that didn't freeze didn't cause any blackouts.

 

[OllieC]

Yes - I have eyes and can read and watch. I don’t need a leftist website for Neo-Marxist talking points. ‘preciate it tho....funny thing is, I haven’t had cable in 6 years and don’t watch Tucker. So thank you.

 

[Blueone]

Some people believe Don Lemon....

 

[highslice]

Part of achieving balance is recognizing when either side is not being truthful. I agree on listening to all sides and find that all "commentators" either shade the truth or outright lie to make a point. Sadly, I think Tucker is more dishonest than most. A Google search on "Tucker Carlson lies" came back with almost 56 million results.

You Literally Can't Believe The Facts Tucker Carlson Tells You. So Say Fox's Lawyers
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/29/9177...s-tucker-carlson-tells-you-so-say-fox-s-lawye

In the clip, Tucker repeated the claim he has been making that frozen windmills caused the Texas power outages. This has been rated a "Pants on Fire" lie by several fact-checkers.

Seems to be a lot more opinion and speculation in that article than facts.

 

[northern]

Since 2008 farm land has gone up by a factor of 5 in our area grain prices have never been better.

 

[jmauld]

My wife follows the semicon industry as part of her work. The basic problem with vehicle shortages is this:

• Cars use a ton of semicon chips to run all their systems and subsystems. The chips are are specialized, and have a fairly long lead time to find their way into finished goods.
• The car makers panicked and cancelled their chip orders assuming car sales would plummet.
• Semicon makers filled their production pipeline with huge orders for all the electronics people wanted by being stuck at home: tablets, PCs, game consoles, security cameras, etc, etc.
• By the time vehicle makers realized their mistake and that sales were actually UP, it was too late. Their chip production slots were filled with other types of chips and they had to get to the back of the line.

I'm currently in a graduate program to get an M.S. in technological systems management. One of my professors in an industry guy and he's a strong advocate of just in time and lean operations. We've had some discussions about if JIT is going to continue to be used like it has been. I feel like with these supply chain shortages and shocks, manufacturers are going to want to keep more inventory on hand so they can actually produce a final good. It's fine that Ford can turn out the truck bodies, but it's not good to them if they can't actually make deliveries because of component shortages. It's just work in process inventory that's costing money because it can't be sold.

JIT is a disaster waiting to happen. It needs to go away.

 

[Golfman25]

JIT is a disaster waiting to happen. It needs to go away.

JIT is fine. Most of the time there is a bit of fluff built in. What we have going on today is the inability to restart the economy as fast as the consumer wants it. For example, when the automakers shut down and cancelled all their steel orders expecting a long dark period of no sales, the steel mills had no choice but to shut down capacity. Problem is the auto sales held up reasonably well -- only down about 15-20%. Well the steel mills can't just flip a switch and turn on again -- it takes time to ramp back up. Some with semiconductors and many other products. The consumer kept on buying even though companies where cutting back.

 

[66pony]

I was fortunate and got my new truck 68 days after I ordered it.

 

[ttmott]

JIT is fine. Most of the time there is a bit of fluff built in. What we have going on today is the inability to restart the economy as fast as the consumer wants it. For example, when the automakers shut down and cancelled all their steel orders expecting a long dark period of no sales, the steel mills had no choice but to shut down capacity. Problem is the auto sales held up reasonably well -- only down about 15-20%. Well the steel mills can't just flip a switch and turn on again -- it takes time to ramp back up. Some with semiconductors and many other products. The consumer kept on buying even though companies where cutting back.

Not really in my opinion - no one wants to carry inventory through an accounting year for tax reasons and that varies state to state; JIT supports low inventory, however JIT doesn't react very well for demand surges from the end user and doesn't react well from source labor shortages. Last year both happened which blew the JIT concept out of the water. Anomaly? Probably, but it shows major flaws in JIT philosophy.

 

[Golfman25]

Not really in my opinion - no one wants to carry inventory through an accounting year for tax reasons and that varies state to state; JIT supports low inventory, however JIT doesn't react very well for demand surges from the end user and doesn't react well from source labor shortages. Last year both happened which blew the JIT concept out of the water. Anomaly? Probably, but it shows major flaws in JIT philosophy.

Right, but the alternative is holding gobs of JIC Inventory -- "Just In Case." Inventory is expensive.

 

[Brent Nutting]

Semiconductors or ICs have a very long leadtime, typically it was about 24 to 26 weeks, but now we are seeing leadtimes around 44 to 46 weeks and can possibly go out to 58 weeks. Makes it real hard for production scheduling.
Not only is the customer demand driving the semi shortages, but there are some other factors that came into play as well. One of the major players had a factory fire and at the same time, demand skyrocketed due to a large increase in computers, gaming systems and phones.
Now take into account a large increase in the raw materials for PCB fabrication (copper clad laminate) and other electronic components such as capacitors, and it has created a "perfect storm".

 

[b_arrington]

Right, but the alternative is holding gobs of JIC Inventory -- "Just In Case." Inventory is expensive.

I'm thinking there's some in between JIT and your case? Have a larger inventory buffer.

I guess the calculus is what's the holding cost of the inventory, vs. lack of sales from stockout for parts you need. If you're missing one component or sub assembly to complete your product, it can't ship and there's no revenue.

I've seen a similar case when we have a backorder for one product. A dealer can't bill for the installation of dozens or hundreds of units because we can't supply a couple. We had a hospital that refused to take and additional units until we could deliver on 1 specific model.

I ordered a hydraulic step for my boat back in January. The vendor relies on actuators from a 3rd party and they were delayed (I still haven't gotten it yet on May 13). If their only business is hydraulic steps and platforms for boats, it seems risky to not have inventory. You can't ship a hydraulic platform without hydraulic actuators.

I'll completely agree that the semicon issues is a perfect storm, and a vehicle maker can't stock enough chips for a year of production or even 6 months.

 

[jmauld]

Not really in my opinion - no one wants to carry inventory through an accounting year for tax reasons and that varies state to state; JIT supports low inventory, however JIT doesn't react very well for demand surges from the end user and doesn't react well from source labor shortages. Last year both happened which blew the JIT concept out of the water. Anomaly? Probably, but it shows major flaws in JIT philosophy.

This is my problem with JIT. It nearly screwed us during the COVID response ramp-up. In areas where we can handle a loss of supply, then JIT is fine. In healthcare, anyone that mentions JIT should be fired.

 

[Golfman25]

I'm thinking there's some in between JIT and your case? Have a larger inventory buffer.

I guess the calculus is what's the holding cost of the inventory, vs. lack of sales from stockout for parts you need. If you're missing one component or sub assembly to complete your product, it can't ship and there's no revenue.

I've seen a similar case when we have a backorder for one product. A dealer can't bill for the installation of dozens or hundreds of units because we can't supply a couple. We had a hospital that refused to take and additional units until we could deliver on 1 specific model.

I ordered a hydraulic step for my boat back in January. The vendor relies on actuators from a 3rd party and they were delayed (I still haven't gotten it yet on May 13). If their only business is hydraulic steps and platforms for boats, it seems risky to not have inventory. You can't ship a hydraulic platform without hydraulic actuators.

I'll completely agree that the semicon issues is a perfect storm, and a vehicle maker can't stock enough chips for a year of production or even 6 months.

You can't really use these days as an operative example. Even if you had inventory, it's gone. Everything is out of balance. I can't find workers, even though unemployment is over 7%. Even if I could find the workers, getting the steel for them to run is becoming more of a challenge. And yet the orders just keep piling up with no letup. It's crazy nuts.

 

[b_arrington]

You can't really use these days as an operative example. Even if you had inventory, it's gone. Everything is out of balance. I can't find workers, even though unemployment is over 7%. Even if I could find the workers, getting the steel for them to run is becoming more of a challenge. And yet the orders just keep piling up with no letup. It's crazy nuts.

All fair points. Out of balance is a good way to describe it.