Tale of Two Virus events

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Third Edition

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In 1968-1969 the Hong Kong flu killed many more than Covid-19 has or is likely to and there was no lockdown. Many of us lived through it. Do you remember it?

There’s the risk of human death from Covid-19, then there’s the risk of economic death from Covid-19.

Currently the US has 57,505 deaths (according to the CDC’s figures at their site today [and that number includes deaths from outside the 50 states and D.C.]).

Contrast that with the Hong Kong flu that killed 100,000 people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu#United_States This at a time when the US population was ~206 million. That’s about .05% of the population.

Today we have ~330 million. The death % so far is .02%. Therefore Covid-19 would have to kill a lot more people to approach the death toll from the Hong Kong flu. When population is adjusted for, a LOT more.

Things must have changed in the intervening years – judging by the reactions then and now. What is the reason for the difference? 24/7 news cycle? More “nanny state”? Less “rugged individualism”? Troops dying in Vietnam numbing the population to “ordinary” things like deaths from the flu?

I’d be interested to hear what you think.
 
Third Edition said:
In 1968-1969 the Hong Kong flu killed many more than Covid-19 has or is likely to and there was no lockdown. Many of us lived through it. Do you remember it?

There’s the risk of human death from Covid-19, then there’s the risk of economic death from Covid-19.

Currently the US has 57,505 deaths (according to the CDC’s figures at their site today [and that number includes deaths from outside the 50 states and D.C.]).

Contrast that with the Hong Kong flu that killed 100,000 people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu#United_States This at a time when the US population was ~206 million. That’s about .05% of the population.

Today we have ~330 million. The death % so far is .02%. Therefore Covid-19 would have to kill a lot more people to approach the death toll from the Hong Kong flu. When population is adjusted for, a LOT more.

Things must have changed in the intervening years – judging by the reactions then and now. What is the reason for the difference? 24/7 news cycle? More “nanny state”? Less “rugged individualism”? Troops dying in Vietnam numbing the population to “ordinary” things like deaths from the flu?

I’d be interested to hear what you think.
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Politics. From the tariffs on China, China's declining economy, Brexit, the continued loss in Europe of left wing control and here in the US an election coming up in which the desperation to unseat a popular President as well as regain control of the senate, it is what someone could call "a perfect storm".

I'm old enough to remember in 2009 when the H1N1 virus killed thousands and infected millions, yet the media hardly covered it, and the administration did nothing until the virus was well advanced, and even that was hardly covered.

Bottom line: We've been had folks.
 
Eric, I will caution your death rates by saying 60K deaths "so far". It's still got a ways to go. However, I agree the hysteria may be unfounded. M
 
spikedaddy99 said:
Eric, I will caution your death rates by saying 60K deaths "so far". It's still got a ways to go. However, I agree the hysteria may be unfounded. M
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Agreed. That's why the "so far". To equal the death toll adjusted for population Covid-19 would need to kill perhaps 3x more in the US. I hope that does not happen, as we all do.
 
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Remember, we will never know the actual death rate of Covid19. Reports of over reporting, and then we don't know how many died beforehand that was attributed to "the flu".

We do know that this virus was here before the CDC acknowledged it. So many had it, thought it was a cold or flu, and went on with their lives.
 
Third Edition said:
In 1968-1969 the Hong Kong flu killed many more than Covid-19 has or is likely to and there was no lockdown. Many of us lived through it. Do you remember it?

There’s the risk of human death from Covid-19, then there’s the risk of economic death from Covid-19.

Currently the US has 57,505 deaths (according to the CDC’s figures at their site today [and that number includes deaths from outside the 50 states and D.C.]).

Contrast that with the Hong Kong flu that killed 100,000 people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu#United_States This at a time when the US population was ~206 million. That’s about .05% of the population.

Today we have ~330 million. The death % so far is .02%. Therefore Covid-19 would have to kill a lot more people to approach the death toll from the Hong Kong flu. When population is adjusted for, a LOT more.

Things must have changed in the intervening years – judging by the reactions then and now. What is the reason for the difference? 24/7 news cycle? More “nanny state”? Less “rugged individualism”? Troops dying in Vietnam numbing the population to “ordinary” things like deaths from the flu?

I’d be interested to hear what you think.
Click to expand...
Well...lots a ways to guess at things when data is incomplete. If you look at the rate of deaths the Hong Kong flu was deadlier, 100,000/206=485 deaths per million vs 57,505/330=174 deaths per million.

But while doing that we're comparing a full seasons activity of about 8 months for the 68/69 season to about 2 months so far this year with cov19...100,000/8=12,500 deaths per month vs 57,505/2=28,753 deaths per month.

28,753 x 8 months = 230,020 deaths from cov19 might be possible. Now comparing the death rate fairly for the same length time period you'd get a death rate of, 230,020/330 = 697 per million....cov19 appears worse than the 68/69 Hong Kong flu.
 
Woody said:
Well...lots a ways to guess at things when data is incomplete. If you look at the rate of deaths the Hong Kong flu was deadlier, 100,000/206=485 deaths per million vs 57,505/330=174 deaths per million.

But while doing that we're comparing a full seasons activity of about 8 months for the 68/69 season to about 2 months so far this year with cov19...100,000/8=12,500 deaths per month vs 57,505/2=28,753 deaths per month.

28,753 x 8 months = 230,020 deaths from cov19 might be possible. Now comparing the death rate fairly for the same length time period you'd get a death rate of, 230,020/330 = 697 per million....cov19 appears worse than the 68/69 Hong Kong flu.
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True. No telling where the Covid-19 numbers will end up. It's compounded by the shoddy recording procedures. Did someone die "from" Covid-19, or "with" Covid-19. I've read that many places just assume someone died of Covid-19 so that's what's on the death cert. Further confused data because many states/municipalities don't require a medical professional to assess the cause of death.
 
Right now the media is playing the numbers game. The mortality rate is a percentage, however since that's coming in low, now they are focused on the numbers because that looks more dramatic.
 
Cuomo even said it’s around .06% mortality rate. No doubt it will be interesting going forward.
 
Hopefully we have evolved as a society since 68/69 and don’t accept death from disease as a given, we rise up and fight together, elevate ourselves for the good of society as a whole.
Remember, human connectivity is infinitely higher today with reliable cars, mass transportation, cheap and accessible air travel, congested populations, etc. The exposure rate is going to be higher, significantly higher than 50 years ago, so doing nothing is likely not a choice anymore. In addition, medical science is infinitely better this time around and we still can’t treat it effectively. This is a heinous virus.
Are we overreacting, possibly, but are you willing to bet your life, or your loved ones lives on it? I am not. Are certain states and areas going too far and grabbing authority over our rights, absolutely. Hopefully we learn and fix those issues during this as well.
 
Sir I appreciate your choice. However there is a lot of people including my self that wants to continue on using safe practices.
Further more if we don,t the country is
Going to go down hill quickly. The states, county, and city governments are already reeling. Another month of no work and I think we are in danger of seeing a lot of services no longer available.
This is not to mention personal and small biz bankruptcy’s coming.
My wife is the treasure of a small county in Kentucky. It already has caused the leaders to have that deer in the head light look.
And yes I am willing to chance it so my grand children will have a good future.
Things will never be the same already.
There will be a new normal.
 
Woody said:
Well...lots a ways to guess at things when data is incomplete. If you look at the rate of deaths the Hong Kong flu was deadlier, 100,000/206=485 deaths per million vs 57,505/330=174 deaths per million.

But while doing that we're comparing a full seasons activity of about 8 months for the 68/69 season to about 2 months so far this year with cov19...100,000/8=12,500 deaths per month vs 57,505/2=28,753 deaths per month.

28,753 x 8 months = 230,020 deaths from cov19 might be possible. Now comparing the death rate fairly for the same length time period you'd get a death rate of, 230,020/330 = 697 per million....cov19 appears worse than the 68/69 Hong Kong flu.
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Woody I think what you need to consider is the "Slope". I am sure the 68/69 Hong Kong flu didn't just end but it tapered off. Right now you are looking at the Covid19 numbers and interpolating the high point and not including the slope. If it was possible, we would need to look at where the 68/69 Hong Kong Flu was for the first several months and compare.
 
The rise of the metrosexual male, feminism, political correctness, corruption in the media, and a mentally weak morally inept society.

That’s how this happens.
 
I am not diminishing the seriousness of this virus. I have lost a coworker, almost lost a former supervisor, and met a 35 year old survivor yesterday who said it was bad - like a very bad flu or worse he said.

I think the political reaction is mainly caused by the media competition with extensive 24/7 coverage and sensationalism. Didn’t have 54 news channels, 10 XM channels, 35 radio channels, 100 print newspapers, 110K internet news sites, 50M blogs all competing for views back in 68. All we had was Cronkite at 6 & 10. Like Don Henley sang, “...its interesting when people die.”

Also, for the first time in many years, we have a true man-of-action in the White House. He is used to getting things done by quick, decisive action based on facts available at the time. You guys know, in business, you can’t wait for focus group studies and government research to be completed in clinical trials to take advantage of trends. I believe that is how he still thinks. For H1N1, we had a career government worker with a slow, reactive mindset waiting for the scientists to tell him what to do. For Covid, we had a fast moving trend setter pushing the government.

I don’t give the idiot media enough credit to develop a highly coordinated and polished scheme to accomplish a common objective, but it seems very convenient they all jumped on this virus, pushed the shut down plan to a great economy, while rolling up to an election where they have no viable candidate, and a lot of other important news is beijg eclipsed (Burisma, Durham, and Barr investigations). Wow! What perfect timing.
 
RBB said:
Sir I appreciate your choice. However there is a lot of people including my self that wants to continue on using safe practices.
Click to expand...

See and that's the thing. You are more than welcome to continue using safe practices. We can open up and you can do that and stay safe. We both get what we want. However, I am being FORCED to do what you want me to do. THAT'S the difference.
 
mratlndmrk said:
See and that's the thing. You are more than welcome to continue using safe practices. We can open up and you can do that and stay safe. We both get what we want. However, I am being FORCED to do what you want me to do. THAT'S the difference.
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I think we agree, maybe I said it wrong.
But just to set the record straight I think it’s ludicrous to quarantine healthy people due to the virus. However I think it’s a good idea to protect the elderly or
People with high risk situations.
The economy should have never been shut down.
 
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