Is boat bubble about to burst?

[El Capitan]

Lots of good folks losing their jobs at midnight tonight due to vax mandates. Not just blue collar workers either.

I know doctors that are scrambling, nurses, pilots, any government contractors like IT consulting company workers.

There’s a marked uptick in foreclosures and preforeclosures in Florida housing market not to mention much more inventory for sale.

Is this the end finally?

 

[hottoddie]

Uncharted territory for sure. The country is at a crossroads. I'm hoping for the best.

 

[boatman37]

I'm a federal gov't contractor (cyber security) and got an email yesterday from my company saying we are required to be fully vaccinated by 12/8, meaning we need to have our 2nd dose by 11/24. A girl on my team went today to get her shot and told me she was against it but wanted to keep her job. I'm in the same boat. Probably go Wednesday morning to get my first shot. Not happy about it. A guy I bowl with just told me the other night that a person he knows through a friend that they got their first shot then died a few days later. Not sure what they died from or what the circumstances are. But I know the 2 worst cases I personally know of were both fully vaccinated. Both of them almost died.

 

[firecadet613]

I'm a federal gov't contractor (cyber security) and got an email yesterday from my company saying we are required to be fully vaccinated by 12/8, meaning we need to have our 2nd dose by 11/24. A girl on my team went today to get her shot and told me she was against it but wanted to keep her job. I'm in the same boat. Probably go Wednesday morning to get my first shot. Not happy about it. A guy I bowl with just told me the other night that a person he knows through a friend that they got their first shot then died a few days later. Not sure what they died from or what the circumstances are. But I know the 2 worst cases I personally know of were both fully vaccinated. Both of them almost died.

You can get another job. Can you come back from the dead if you have a bad reaction to the vax?

 

[Thornton69]

Isn't there back orders up to 18 mos in the marine world?
Never mind, thought we were talking about a boat bubble.....

 

[firecadet613]

Isn't there back orders up to 18 mos in the marine world?
Never mind, thought we were talking about a boat bubble.....

And yes, some builders don't have any open slots until the 2023 model year...and aren't building any cruisers for 2022 in an effort to produce as many bowriders as possible....

 

[boatman37]

You can get another job. Can you come back from the dead if you have a bad reaction to the vax?

Pretty hard to get one as good as this one...lol. Around here I'd be looking at at least a 75 or so minute drive. I work from home right now. Besides, looks like about 95% of other jobs in my field will require it anyway so not much of a choice unless I hit the Powerball

 

[Golfman25]

I hate to say it because it will bring pain, but we need a good old fashioned recession. One where people are unemployed for a while so they value on job again. One where demand tanks, so supply chains can catch up. Gotta kill this inflation bug pronto. So I hope this bubble does burst, and burst good. We need to flush all the crap down the sewer.

 

[El Capitan]

Isn't there back orders up to 18 mos in the marine world?
Never mind, thought we were talking about a boat bubble.....

Back orders are not sales. If things turn for the worse many “orders” will get canceled by people who lost jobs.

Look at the turn in real estate in some markets. The Fed foreclosure protections are over. Stimulus funding gone. Unemployment about to spike as thousands lose jobs or become ill this winter. Store shelves getting emptier. Gas and heating oil projected to spike 50% from today’s prices. Food prices continue to skyrocket.

When the Fed Res inches interest rates up you can bet SHF and that false economic exuberance will set off the domino effect.

Just look at the value of the dollar. See gold, Bitcoin.

You don’t have to be Nostradamus to see the burst coming.

 

[El Capitan]

I hate to say it because it will bring pain, but we need a good old fashioned recession. One where people are unemployed for a while so they value on job again. One where demand tanks, so supply chains can catch up. Gotta kill this inflation bug pronto. So I hope this bubble does burst, and burst good. We need to flush all the crap down the sewer.

We are in stagflation. Worse than recession. Stagflation is high inflation plus zero to negative growth (GDP). Add unemployment, a number of blue states shutting down this winter, more supply chain disruptions and then another round of layoffs.

We’ll wish we were only in a recession. It will put us in full blown economic depression.

 

[jmauld]

Where are you getting negative gdp from?

 

[cod]

Pretty hard to get one as good as this one...lol. Around here I'd be looking at at least a 75 or so minute drive. I work from home right now. Besides, looks like about 95% of other jobs in my field will require it anyway so not much of a choice unless I hit the Powerball

So…….You work from home but are required to get vaccinated………

 

[Golfman25]

Where are you getting negative gdp from?

This is concerning
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

In their model you can see the GDP estimate fell off a cliff in the last month. We might be in for a big surprise.

 

[OllieC]

So much of this could have been avoided. Yes, I see a boat bubble bursting, just on energy prices alone.

Problem is @Golfman25, much like our last recession, elected officials will decide which corps get taxpayer funded bailouts and who doesn’t, instead of letting the chips fall where they may.

 

[tc410]

Where are you getting negative gdp from?

@El Capitan makes shit up all the time.

 

[jmauld]

@El Capitan makes shit up all the time.

I know. I’m just asking for a source so I can make fun of it.

 

[Stee6043]

We are in stagflation. Worse than recession. Stagflation is high inflation plus zero to negative growth (GDP). Add unemployment, a number of blue states shutting down this winter, more supply chain disruptions and then another round of layoffs.

We’ll wish we were only in a recession. It will put us in full blown economic depression.

Through the second quarter GDP is up 6.7% in 2021. According to the fancy chart included in the link below the only time we've seen negative GPD in the last few years was H1 last year.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross...dp-industry-and-corporate-profits-revised-2nd

 

[Stee6043]

I'm a federal gov't contractor (cyber security) and got an email yesterday from my company saying we are required to be fully vaccinated by 12/8, meaning we need to have our 2nd dose by 11/24. A girl on my team went today to get her shot and told me she was against it but wanted to keep her job. I'm in the same boat. Probably go Wednesday morning to get my first shot. Not happy about it. A guy I bowl with just told me the other night that a person he knows through a friend that they got their first shot then died a few days later. Not sure what they died from or what the circumstances are. But I know the 2 worst cases I personally know of were both fully vaccinated. Both of them almost died.

They (US Govt) are working to update all of their contracts to require contractors to demand 100% vaccination of all employees. I think the first wave of this hit this week. Plenty of news stories about Boeing, Raytheon, IBM, other very large companies with very large Govt contracts all pushing 100% vaccine mandates to their employees. All have the same deadline - December 8. Not because they wanted to, but because the US Govt is demanding it.

It's pretty clever, really. The executive order that goes into effect December 8 allows for weekly testing or vaccination. But if you're a Gov't contractor that option to test weekly will not be available...

 

[km1125]

I'm a federal gov't contractor (cyber security) and got an email yesterday from my company saying we are required to be fully vaccinated by 12/8, meaning we need to have our 2nd dose by 11/24. A girl on my team went today to get her shot and told me she was against it but wanted to keep her job. I'm in the same boat. Probably go Wednesday morning to get my first shot. Not happy about it. A guy I bowl with just told me the other night that a person he knows through a friend that they got their first shot then died a few days later. Not sure what they died from or what the circumstances are. But I know the 2 worst cases I personally know of were both fully vaccinated. Both of them almost died.

If you *must* end up getting the vax, you might want to ask the medic that's doing it if they "aspirate" (I think that's the correct term) before they inject. This is where they pull the plunger back after they've stabbed you to make sure they're not injecting into a vein. There's been some research that tied accidental vax injection into a vein to very serious complications, mostly coronary, and it happens between 1% and 10% of the time, but not always with fatal results.

But I totally agree with the other comments on here about the "bubble" and the overall economy. It's not "if", it's "when".

 

[boatman37]

So…….You work from home but are required to get vaccinated………

Yep. Specifically says 'ALL' contractors, even remote. I have not been to my home office in almost 2 years (to pick up a new laptop) and haven't been to any other branch in over a year (had an issue with my laptop). I don't even have an office or a desk there.