Is boat bubble about to burst?

I think it will pop. Our unemployment numbers are skewed cause they only count those 'looking for' work. If you are unemployed and not looking you are not counted. Everywhere you go there are help wanted signs. Many service related businesses have signs saying short staffed, please be patient and expect longer wait times. A bunch of local food places have closed their indoor dining because they can find staff to run it. Local Dunkin Donuts no longer have walk in service because of this. Many businesses closing only because they can't find workers. The local McDonalds hired a 14 and a 15 year old because they can't get applicants.
With gov't handing out 'free' money and 'unskilled' labor demanding $15/hour people feel entitled and would rather sit at home. $15/hour jobs weren't meant to be careers. Not to take away from McDonalds workers but I have worked these 'menial' jobs when I was younger and can tell you without a doubt they were the easiest jobs I have had. They don't deserve premium pay and I never once thought that any of those jobs would be my career. When I felt I wanted more money I worked harder and educated myself to be able to go get more. Not protest that I'm entitled to more.
 
boatman37 said:
Yep. Specifically says 'ALL' contractors, even remote. I have not been to my home office in almost 2 years (to pick up a new laptop) and haven't been to any other branch in over a year (had an issue with my laptop). I don't even have an office or a desk there.
Click to expand...
That's science for you. We are being "led" by morons.
 
boatman37 said:
I think it will pop. Our unemployment numbers are skewed cause they only count those 'looking for' work. If you are unemployed and not looking you are not counted. Everywhere you go there are help wanted signs. Many service related businesses have signs saying short staffed, please be patient and expect longer wait times. A bunch of local food places have closed their indoor dining because they can find staff to run it. Local Dunkin Donuts no longer have walk in service because of this. Many businesses closing only because they can't find workers. The local McDonalds hired a 14 and a 15 year old because they can't get applicants.
With gov't handing out 'free' money and 'unskilled' labor demanding $15/hour people feel entitled and would rather sit at home. $15/hour jobs weren't meant to be careers. Not to take away from McDonalds workers but I have worked these 'menial' jobs when I was younger and can tell you without a doubt they were the easiest jobs I have had. They don't deserve premium pay and I never once thought that any of those jobs would be my career. When I felt I wanted more money I worked harder and educated myself to be able to go get more. Not protest that I'm entitled to more.
Click to expand...
I am toying with the idea of closing a division of my company because I can't find people. I don't have anyone to run the work. And yes, we have conditioned a whole bunch of people that they are entitled to a "living" wage, whatever the fk that is. Customers have their heads so far up their rear ends they act like everything should be normal and there should be no problems/delays.

Funny story. Working with one large company. Guy tells me they aren't having problems sourcing material and "we'll leverage the supply chain" blah, blah, blah. So they are going to put me in touch with their metal buyer. We talk and he offers to trade me toilet paper for steel, and is asking me where to find steel. Next thing I know, he's pulled into our zoom meetings cause he can't find chit either. So much for their supply chain.

I just think we have serious problems that are being masked by the market, the fed, and monopoly money. Not sure how we are going to get out of this. Something has to give. Watch the Oct. 28 Q3 GDP estimate -- I think it will be a surprise.
 
I’m just a guy that stares at a pc screen all day but i work for a major transportation company. The articles we get regarding product shipping predicts the worst is yet, possibly total collapse in supply chain. Take that with salt. I have no idea how Amazon is still delivering stuff on 2 days notice. If you think its tough to find a kid to work McDonald’s, the shipping companies cant get men who want to be trapped on a freighter months at a time with really bad food for crap wages if they get paid at all, but that’s another story.
 
Stee6043 said:
Through the second quarter GDP is up 6.7% in 2021. According to the fancy chart included in the link below the only time we've seen negative GPD in the last few years was H1 last year.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross...dp-industry-and-corporate-profits-revised-2nd
Click to expand...

6.7% is not inflation adjusted number. Your reference data is a government publication.

“…We expect Q3 GDP growth to step down from the robust 6.6 percent annualized rate of Q2 to something closer to 3 percent. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s last third quarter result for their GDPNow model was 3.7 percent and the trajectory of forecasts is heading down. A key factor in our expectation of cooling real GDP growth for Q3 are headwinds on consumer spending. Both cars and houses are up in price and supply is tight. The spread of COVID-D has been a damper for consumer confidence. Also, federally funded enhanced unemployment benefits are expiring. Finally, some households are facing financial pressure as evictions moratoria are rolled back. ”

https://www.comerica.com/insights/economic-commentary/september-2021-us-economic-outlook.html
 
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62 ships with countless containers full of junk, mostly from China still unable to port and unload. The government and media say it's because of the "epic" buying power of the US citizens prepping for the holidays.

BS
Californian officials are blaming labor shortages and trucking shortages.

BS
Here's some facts from the trucking industry.
The NEWS says the California port situation is caused by a driver shortage.

Not so fast: It is in part caused by a California Truck Ban which says all trucks must be 2011 or newer and a law called AB 5 which prohibits Owner Operators.

Traditionally the ports have been served by Owner Operators (non union). California has now banned Owner Operators.

Long term, truckers in California are not investing in new trucks because California has a law that makes them illegal in 2035.

The requirement is to purchase electric trucks which do not exist.
And in the words of Paul Harvey, “Now you know the rest of the story”

BUSINESS
CARB to begin blocking certain trucks’ DMV registrations in 2020
Carriers domiciled in California with trucks older than 2011 model, or using engines manufactured before 2010,

will need to meet the Board’s new Truck and Bus Regulation beginning in 2020 or their vehicles will be blocked from registration with the state’s DMV, the state has said.

The new “health-based requirements” will need to be met before a driver is allowed to register his or her truck through the Department of Motor Vehicles, CARB says.

A new enforcement tool used by the DMV beginning in 2020 will automatically block 2010 and older trucks from registration.
Then there's the $5+ a gallon diesel prices in California.
 
$5/gallon? It's about $4/gallon here in PA so I'm actually surprised it isn't higher. Actually just checked gas buddy and it's 3.85 to 4.05 around here. But PA has one of the highest gas taxes in the country thanks to the long string of dems being in charge
 
If I wanted to screw up the economy I would;

- Pay people to stay home
- Pay others skilled labor rates for menial tasks
- Give them a raise every time they pumped out another baby
- Tell them they don't have to pay their rent or mortgage
- Decide that we don't really need those pesky non-vaxers in the labor force.
- Regulate half the trucks off the road
- Flood the southern border with additional cheap labor.
- Shut off as much domestic energy production as possible.
- Spend trillions of dollars we don't have

But hey, nobody would be that stupid right?
 
El Capitan said:
62 ships with countless containers full of junk, mostly from China still unable to port and unload. The government and media say it's because of the "epic" buying power of the US citizens prepping for the holidays.

I believe Freightliner and Nikola are making electric and electric/hydrogen trucks. Not sure if any are on the street yet……….

BS
Californian officials are blaming labor shortages and trucking shortages.

BS
Here's some facts from the trucking industry.
The NEWS says the California port situation is caused by a driver shortage.

Not so fast: It is in part caused by a California Truck Ban which says all trucks must be 2011 or newer and a law called AB 5 which prohibits Owner Operators.

Traditionally the ports have been served by Owner Operators (non union). California has now banned Owner Operators.

Long term, truckers in California are not investing in new trucks because California has a law that makes them illegal in 2035.

The requirement is to purchase electric trucks which do not exist.
And in the words of Paul Harvey, “Now you know the rest of the story”

BUSINESS
CARB to begin blocking certain trucks’ DMV registrations in 2020
Carriers domiciled in California with trucks older than 2011 model, or using engines manufactured before 2010,

will need to meet the Board’s new Truck and Bus Regulation beginning in 2020 or their vehicles will be blocked from registration with the state’s DMV, the state has said.

The new “health-based requirements” will need to be met before a driver is allowed to register his or her truck through the Department of Motor Vehicles, CARB says.

A new enforcement tool used by the DMV beginning in 2020 will automatically block 2010 and older trucks from registration.
Then there's the $5+ a gallon diesel prices in California.
Click to expand...

I believe Freightliner and Nikola are making electric and electric/hydrogen trucks. Not sure if they are on the road yet……
 
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boatman37 said:
$5/gallon? It's about $4/gallon here in PA so I'm actually surprised it isn't higher. Actually just checked gas buddy and it's 3.85 to 4.05 around here. But PA has one of the highest gas taxes in the country thanks to the long string of dems being in charge
Click to expand...

Just saw report on crawling ticker oil barrel projects to $200/barrel. :eek:
 
I said when Biden was 'elected' that we would be paying $7/gallon for gas before long. In fact I probably posted it here at some point.
 
El Capitan said:
Just saw report on crawling ticker oil barrel projects to $200/barrel. :eek:
Click to expand...
Sounds more like an OPEC and Russia wet dream than a prediction...

I know it won't happen, but at some point reasonable leaders must prevail and we can get back to exploiting our massive reserves and start pumping oil again and flooding the market.
 
Report on Stock Watch tv channel that Inflation figures are under reported. Far worse and will continue to worsen.

Shortages in goods including food items this winter in addition to oil and gas spikes.

I can’t find one piece of good economic news nor outlooks.
 
2 brokers I talk to say boat prices are coming down and inventory is going up. A boat I looked at 5 weeks ago is still on the market, which surprised me as it showed good to well and was priced fair then. I am seeing listings sit longer as well.

Regarding return to work, I work in IT and have not been in the office since March 2019. We are scheduled to return to the office January 2022 on a hybrid model. I hired some remote workers since COVID who will not be required to return to the office. In my field demand exceeds supply, big. I cannot find good talent and everyone wants remote now.
 
El Capitan said:
Report on Stock Watch tv channel that Inflation figures are under reported. Far worse and will continue to worsen.

Shortages in goods including food items this winter in addition to oil and gas spikes.

I can’t find one piece of good economic news nor outlooks.
Click to expand...
I'm wondering what happens when all those containers eventually make it to their destinations. There will be a 'glut' in supply, but will there still be enough demand? Will the market absorb the quantity without a corresponding drop in prices?
 
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