The "virus" What are your thoughts

Discussion in 'Holding Tank' started by FootballFan, Jan 23, 2020.

  1. Steve S

    Steve S Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

    Jun 5, 2007
    Northern IL.
    2000 400 Sedan Bridge with twin CAT 3116's

    2000 340 Sundancer - SOLD!
    210 Monaco 1987 - SOLD!
    Twin Caterpillar 3116's 350 HP straight drives
    Blueone, I am in industrial manufacturing also and sell thru distribution. Although I do know certain key customers, the greater majority of sales, we have no clue where they are.
    Also from a legal standpoint we cannot tell a distributor who they can or cannot sell my product to. My transaction is between my company and the distributor. It becomes their property. My only responsibility at that point is standing behind the quality of the product.
     
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  2. Blueone

    Blueone Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

    Jan 24, 2007
    Lake Erie, Ohio
    2004 420 Sundancer
    Cummins 6CTA 450's
    I understand.... but we are in a pandemic...and you have a key piece of PPE. You would think you would step in as management of 3M and see what is going on
     
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  3. CaptRonn

    CaptRonn Well-Known Member

    694
    May 25, 2016
    on a large body of water
    1999 Sea Ray 400 Sedan Bridge
    Convert fuel into noise
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Great Lakes

    Great Lakes Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

    881
    Oct 11, 2016
    Lake St. Clair - Michigan (MacRay Harbor)
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    One question: at what point does the economy and the risk of a deep depression matter?

    I’m not trying to be insensitive, just would like to know what people think.
     
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  5. Steve S

    Steve S Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

    Jun 5, 2007
    Northern IL.
    2000 400 Sedan Bridge with twin CAT 3116's

    2000 340 Sundancer - SOLD!
    210 Monaco 1987 - SOLD!
    Twin Caterpillar 3116's 350 HP straight drives
    Agreed. Although our business model is strictly thru industrial distribution, we have taken very limited orders direct from government entities. There is no reason 3M couldn't have done that.
     
  6. Blueone

    Blueone Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

    Jan 24, 2007
    Lake Erie, Ohio
    2004 420 Sundancer
    Cummins 6CTA 450's
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  7. Steve S

    Steve S Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

    Jun 5, 2007
    Northern IL.
    2000 400 Sedan Bridge with twin CAT 3116's

    2000 340 Sundancer - SOLD!
    210 Monaco 1987 - SOLD!
    Twin Caterpillar 3116's 350 HP straight drives
    Great question! I have been wondering that myself - What is the balance point between the virus and putting the global economy completely in the tank? Even when we get the all clear, I do not know that people are simply going to flood back into restaurants, Starbucks etc... I think people will retain the mindset and be leary of personal contact.
     
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  8. El Capitan

    El Capitan Well-Known Member

    Jul 9, 2014
    Chicago IL./Vero Beach, Fl
    1970 SRV 180 w 2.5L Mercruiser.
    2000 Ford Expedition Eddie Bauer
    120HP Mercruiser
  9. Steve S

    Steve S Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

    Jun 5, 2007
    Northern IL.
    2000 400 Sedan Bridge with twin CAT 3116's

    2000 340 Sundancer - SOLD!
    210 Monaco 1987 - SOLD!
    Twin Caterpillar 3116's 350 HP straight drives
    Here is a long article from a German source. Pardon the translation errors.

    If we do not end the total blockade soon, there will be a historic meltdown in the German economy. Politicians should leave radical mode and start intelligent virus control.

    Germany is facing the biggest wave of bankruptcies since the Great Depression of 1929. The historically unique shutdown of the entire economy does more damage every day. If the government is not careful, the damage will be irreparable. After just two weeks, 470,000 companies in Germany reported short-time work because of the total blockade . Millions of workers are directly affected and are worried about their economic existence. Unemployment will now skyrocket. In Austria, the shutdown has pushed unemployment to its highest level since 1946 - in just one month.

    But this snapshot is only a trifle compared to what threatens to damage the German economy and the country's social fabric if the shutdown were extended far beyond Easter. The historical mega experiment of simply switching off an economy has no example, because even in the world wars the economy continued. However, it does not know its risk.

    Politicians must weight two effects more sharply, which will ruin economic activity in a tsunami way. On the one hand, the shutdown very soon causes huge damage with chain reactions. Production networks collapse, supply chains break, tens of thousands of individuals, small businesses and medium-sized companies become insolvent (much faster than is believed in Berlin) - the government's aid measures can only mitigate this, but not prevent it. Every bankruptcy creates a consequential problem for suppliers, creditors and customers, who in turn get problems. Even if the individual company can survive a month or two, the crack in the business network ensures that each month of downtime is multiplied by the damage. It behaves like the meltdown of an atomic reactor. In the end, the fallout ends up with the banks, which are threatened with huge loan losses. So every single day produces billions of dollars in debt radiation. The meltdown can wreak havoc within weeks, and even healthy companies can burn up.

    Politicians must not underestimate the density of interaction between economic stability. If this is destroyed - as is now the case during a shutdown - the axis of economic progress will break. Politics, dominated by civil servants and lawyers, clearly tend to view the economy as a large, static authority that can be closed for a while and, if necessary, subsequently helped with money. In reality, however, the economy is like a living organism that simply dies if its cycle does not circulate.

    The second underestimated problem is the structural break in a quarantine economy. When thousands of startups die in a shutdown, the arithmetical damage to the economy doesn't seem to weigh much.

    In fact, the creative potential of the future is being destroyed. The same applies to research-driven growth companies and to particularly competitive industries that suddenly disappear completely from the market in a structural break. If the typical Swabian-medium-sized world market leader goes bankrupt after months of zero business, then Germany has lost this world market leadership forever. With every company, knowledge and added value for the future also disappear. Even the key German car industry is endangered. The margins of manufacturers and suppliers had already declined sharply before the outbreak of the corona crisis, and electrification and digitization are already attacking the classic business model. Especially now that billions of dollars of investment would be needed breaks the entire core business away. An industry that is juggling a fine line can completely tear down such a crisis.

    The strategy of stopping a virus with a radical shutdown was risky from the start. Now, every hour, the risk increases that the enormous rescue packages in turn trigger confidence crises and financial market turmoil. Does the Eurosystem really hold up in such a situation? Are the Italian and Spanish sovereign debt still blindly trusted? Can the ECB actually defend the euro ? So far, the illusion of trust has depended on the fact that states and central banks can guarantee everything. In reality, however, they cannot. Politicians have to be extremely careful not to reveal this.

    There is no alternative to the shutdown
    April 19 is not just an appointment. It is the weather divide from a possible medical catastrophe that we are trying to avoid, to a socio-economic catastrophe whose beginnings we can already see. The concept of the European states to rely on radical mass quarantines with week-long curfews and no contacts requires an extremely high price - namely that of economic and social breakdown.

    In any case, the shutdown concept of corona crisis management is not without alternative. So the countries of East Asia trust a completely different strategy. From Japan to Singapore, from Hong Kong to Taiwan to South Korea, the economy continues, there is no shutdown of society, schools and shops remain open. Even if the societies of East Asia function differently and the East Asians have a different understanding of the state and cohabitation: they seem to get through the crisis much better than the Europeans. Her recipe: masks for everyone, tight controlling and digital tracking of the sick. Keep your distance (especially for the elderly) and pay attention to hygiene anyway. The success is amazing, the infection seems to be better controlled in East Asia than in the mask-free shutdown Europe.

    Sweden , too , even if it adjusts the strategy against Corona here and there, takes a different path than Germany. Many other countries are thus showing that pandemic control can work much more smoothly with modern, intelligent, digital methods. If the majority of the population - such as those under the age of 50 - are hardly affected by this disease, why should they be locked away and their economic existence? Is it perhaps an option to specifically protect those in need of protection? The total blockade of a shutdown may protect a patient from a virus, but the patient then dies in economic circulatory failure - that cannot be wise. Germany's compulsory coma must end on April 19!

    Source: ntv.de
     
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  10. Tacoma290

    Tacoma290 Active Member SILVER Sponsor

    260
    Oct 5, 2006
    Tacoma, WA
    340 Sundancer 2007
    Twin 8.1S V-drives
    Fascinating post, Steve. The approaches of the east and west are so different. We in WA state are under orders for another month of stay at home (through May 4th). I would have preferred an immediate switch to masks (when away from your home circle of trust) and would have wanted an evaluation in two weeks instead of four. But what do I know.

    Until there is an inoculation, we in the west may need to embrace a new normal of masks. Or face decimation of our economy while the east's economy moves along.
     
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  11. M Prod

    M Prod Well-Known Member

    Oct 6, 2017
    North Vancouver, BC
    2005 Sundancer 340
    Zodiac Cadet w/FCT console Yamaha F20
    Kohler 5KW Genny
    8.1 Horizons /V Drives
    Thanks Steve ...very well written and thought provoking article. I've also been wondering this myself ...at what point is the price that all of us will pay as a society through economic collapse and ruin, greater than that of the toll the virus itself will take? How many people will lose everything? How many will die as a result of that? How many will have complete mental breakdowns? How many will turn to crime in an effort to just eat? I think the toll on society that a complete economic collapse will take, is immeasurable. I don't think anyone can foresee or even imagine any of the long term effects of this, but none of it is good. I believe we can and must be smarter than this, though I don't know the answer. I know we MUST protect those most vulnerable (My dad falls into this category with his diabetes and heart issues) and I love my dad very much ...so believe me, the health aspect is at the forefront of my mind. But surely there is a better way? Surely we can protect our most vulnerable while not destroying our economies (and entire societies) in the process.
     
  12. Iprof

    Iprof Well-Known Member TECHNICAL Contributor

    Aug 8, 2008
    Lake Huron
    A 300 DA 4kw Gen-set, central vac, electric head, windlass, AC/reverse heat, Lowrance 522ci GPS Char
    twin 5.7 with Alpha drives
    There are many papers written on the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic and the economy. Some were just written comparing Covid-19 to 1918 but I find the ones written before this out break to be the most enlightening. All the papers that I have read say the areas that took precautions and isolated people with the flu had the quickest economy recovery. The 1918 Flu saw .66 of the total population die and recover did not happen till 1923. How this progresses is just a guess at this point as we gather more data a more accurate guess can be made but it's going to take time.
     
  13. Woody

    Woody Well-Known Member PLATINUM Sponsor

    Nov 20, 2007
    N. Wisconsin/Lk Superior
    2005 420DA
    Cummins 6CTA8.3
    Hey, that's what the POTUS has said, that we can't let the cure become worse than the disease. There's hope for you MProd, put on that MAGA hat and step outta the closet.:D
     
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  14. El Capitan

    El Capitan Well-Known Member

    Jul 9, 2014
    Chicago IL./Vero Beach, Fl
    1970 SRV 180 w 2.5L Mercruiser.
    2000 Ford Expedition Eddie Bauer
    120HP Mercruiser
    Fact.

    As of this moment there is no ventilator rationing in NY city.

    A glimmer of hope...
     
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  15. M Prod

    M Prod Well-Known Member

    Oct 6, 2017
    North Vancouver, BC
    2005 Sundancer 340
    Zodiac Cadet w/FCT console Yamaha F20
    Kohler 5KW Genny
    8.1 Horizons /V Drives
    Yup, he tweeted it about 15 minutes after it was discussed on Fox News. Regardless, it's not a question unique to Trump or Fox. But jokes aside, this isn't about politics. I'm scared just like everyone. And I think this is a perfect example of how we are all in this together.
     
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2020
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  16. susanandlance

    susanandlance Well-Known Member

    Feb 10, 2011
    Florida
    2007 Sea Ray 36 Sedan Bridge
    8.1 mercruisers
    Woody, Send me a MAGA hat...…..So I can chit in it when I run out of TP...….:D
     
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  17. RBB

    RBB Well-Known Member

    548
    Dec 18, 2019
    Kentucky
    2004 390 MY
    2019 Sea Doo GTX 155
    2020 Walker Bay Venture 14
    Pelican Kayak
    8.1’s straight drive
    60 hp Honda
    My wife and I are in our mid 60s, she has bad upper respiratory problems. In our talks even though we are afraid, we worry more about destroying the country and nothing being left for our grandchildren. Something will have to give I hope.
    Washing boat tomorrow, can’t wait.
     
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  18. northern

    northern Well-Known Member

    Jan 17, 2007
    West coast Vancouver to Alaska
    380 Aft Cabin 1989 GPS and Charts by Nobeltec
    Twin 454 strait shaft
    Flu will kill and it can happen to anyone no matter how careful they are

    My Grandfather on my fathers side was a doctor (Colonel) in WWI and fought the Spanish Flu after the war and survived. In 1947 there was another flu and he doctored people in that. According to a relative that knew him he went home one night after treating people and died. He was 68.
    We got out of Panama 2 days before they closed all airports. That country is on a lockdown we got this from a friend there
    We are on 24hr lockdown. We can go to the grocery store for 2 hours per day based on the last digit of passport, haven’t been out yet. The condo is like a ghost town, hardly ever see anybody, all social areas are closed. $50-$100k fine if caught outside your allowed time to be out.
     
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  19. Creekwood

    Creekwood Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

    Apr 26, 2009
    Oakville and Georgian Bay, Ontario
    '97 330 Sundancer, Raymarine C80 suite with radar, Mercury 310 Hypalon w/8hp Yammie 2stk
    2X 454 carbs w/ vDrives
    So Trump has whacked 3M for continuing to send supplies to regular customers outside of the US, Canada included. While I understand that he was elected on an "America first" mandate, its very disappointing. Many (most?) of masks are made in China. If China takes that same view, they would stop 3M and any other mask/ventilator maker from shipping anything out of their country. Its sad that the world has come to this, but not surprising.
     
    BEH likes this.
  20. RBB

    RBB Well-Known Member

    548
    Dec 18, 2019
    Kentucky
    2004 390 MY
    2019 Sea Doo GTX 155
    2020 Walker Bay Venture 14
    Pelican Kayak
    8.1’s straight drive
    60 hp Honda

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