Death statistics, how about some meaningful numbers?

Discussion in 'The Tiki Bar' started by Carpediem44DB, Apr 8, 2020.

  1. Carpediem44DB

    Carpediem44DB Well-Known Member PLATINUM Sponsor

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    Just saw Cuomo making his daily "look at me, see how important I am" address.
    He gave us the 'good news' then the terrible news. The bad news was there were 700 plus deaths today versus 500 plus yesterday..... What is not ever clarified with any certainty or believability is how many were deaths due only to the virus. According to various sources, on average, 150 plus of those deaths would occur in NYC daily alone. Of course 500 additional deaths is a horrible statistic and all of our hearts are heavy with grief for the loved ones dealing with their loss and prayers are with them. It would just be refreshing if the numbers reported were meaningful and put into perspective. Thinking people are capable of seeing thru the message and dealing with the reality but the masses are easily manipulated by fear and it is just intellectually dishonest of these politicians to craft and state the numbers to meet the narrative rather than be truthful and transparent with all of the truthful facts. people should see the actual numbers that matter such as how many are tested, positive and negative, active cases, number of those hospitalized and most important number of recovered cases. Some municipalities have Covid Dashboards for citizens to track and some have these numbers so why cant the media use those to shed a positive light? Answer..... Hilary Lost!!!
    Carpe Diem
     
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  2. CaptRonn

    CaptRonn Well-Known Member

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    Figures lie and liars figure.

    It's time for the media to start posting graphs of unemployed, businesses closed, bankruptcy filed, and deaths from economic turndown.
     
  3. mratlndmrk

    mratlndmrk Active Member GOLD Sponsor

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    Stay at Home orders "MAY" save 50,000 lives. But Stay at Home "HAS" had a very real and possibly lasting negative economic impact on 300,000,000 lives.
     
  4. Carpediem44DB

    Carpediem44DB Well-Known Member PLATINUM Sponsor

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    How about the unintended consequences of the stay at home orders such as domestic violence numbers and such. Seems as though politicians pick the easy, least difficult decision instead of taking a breath and considering all of the ramifications of said policies. I'm the first to say 'don't complain with out first offering a better solution' I think the curve could have been flattened by protecting the most vulnerable and everyone using common sense sanitation and distancing protocols instead of using the broad brush approach that crippled our economy the way it did and apparently will continue to do. Which governor is going to have the balls to first declare the orders cancelled and suffer the wrath if the curve reverses course?
     
  5. Great Lakes

    Great Lakes Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

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    Dr Birx said Wednesday that there's a "very acute second wave" coming.

    So I guess that means we must lockdown for another 6-8 weeks once the second wave hits too, right? Otherwise the first wave shutdown meant nothing, right? Or does the "don't open the economy up too soon" crowd think that's going too far?

    I guess what I'm wondering is where that line is. Whats too long for you?

    If someone could answer that question that would be great.
     
  6. Creekwood

    Creekwood Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

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    I think that the impact of any restart decision will be VERY easy to see with all of the state by state graphs. When things open up, and if they open up early, there will be direct comparison data (real facts) on death rates that will be highly visible. Maybe Trump will take that risk. Maybe not. As he always says, "we'll see".
     
  7. OllieC

    OllieC Well-Known Member SILVER Sponsor

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    I've heard 50 days is the breaking point where the country will lose a significant amount of small business's that will never return. Compound that with these $2trillion here-and-there "spending" or "redistribution" packages (they're not stimulus, because they would have to stimulate something and it for sure isn't the economy), the future outlook could be grim if it's prolonged.

    My business is essential, working with the internet utilities, but everyone is making cuts, including the utilities. If people are laid off, they can't pay for internet. If they can't pay for internet, the utilities can't or will delay expanding. When they don't expand, my products aren't used....etc.

    There is a silver lining in my business, provided this 'stay at home' doesn't go on for months. Because business's are working remotely, myself included, and our kids are working remotely with their education, the utilities are identifying a lot of holes in their networks, which IMO they will need to expand and improve upon.
     
  8. Loyd Dinneen

    Loyd Dinneen Active Member

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    By having people out and shopping and not practicing social distancing or wearing masks is only going to keep this thing going and there will be no end. We must be smart and stay at home to keep this thing at bay, sure it sucks for the business's and the economy but has to be done. If there is a second wave of this it will be because we become complacent and start our old habits and those that are still infected will reinfect everyone and we will be fighting it all over again. We have to be smart about this and follow the rules stay at home, wear masks,wash your hands,and practice social distancing.Remember everytime you go out in the public you just extended your quarentine time another 14 days. What's to long for me? Well the question should be how long do you and your family want to live?
     
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  9. Great Lakes

    Great Lakes Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

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    I understand what you’re saying.

    At what point of the economy being closed too long for you? October?

    You do know we’ll never completely get rid of this. I think social distancing is preventing our society from becoming a Herd Society.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
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  10. AJSB

    AJSB Member

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  11. CaptRonn

    CaptRonn Well-Known Member

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    At what point has the damage been done economically? At what point are people killing themselves over losing everything they have worked for? At what point do mortgage holders go bankrupt, commercial mortgage goes bankrupt, manufacturers go bankrupt, and banks start closing? At what point does the money start running out for government? Remember, no one working, businesses shuttered, there is no more income (taxes) to the government. Even local governments will no longer have funds to pay police, fire and utilities.

    You think this virus will kill many? Just wait until the country slumps into a deep depression.

    In 2009 H1N1 killed more and hospitalized more, yet we didn't burn down the house to kill the spider.
     
  12. my3sons

    my3sons Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

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    Our county health department has a nice covid map that they post every day. Breaks it down nicely I think by town and Zip code
    https://erieny.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/dd7f1c0c352e4192ab162a1dfadc58e1
    Like the presidents covid task force every day, I think Cuomo's pressers were helpful in the beginning. Now I think that both are starting to run out of things to say. Maybe they should just cut back a little?
    For me, personally, The weather stinks, it's too soon for the boat and I'm getting things done around the house. I don't mind locking down if it means better and sooner for all of us in a month or two. I also am interested in what some professionals are saying about us older folks staying locked down and letting the younger healthier people get back to work and starting the economy rolling. They will get sick, they will get better and it will build the herd immunity. I just don't understand it all so until then I paint the basement, help my wife make and freeze sauce and jerk venison.
     
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  13. Creekwood

    Creekwood Well-Known Member GOLD Sponsor

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    H1N1 was a MUCH less dangerous disease with a much lower death rate. There was no lock down and H1N1 infected 60.8 million people. So at the COVID death rate, that would mean about 2,135,000 american deaths if it was left to run its course.

    COVID has already killed more in the US that H1N1 did in total over its entire period. And COVID is not finished yet. And really, you think that the death rate from COVID inflicted suicide is going to be a factor?:

    Lets use FACTs

    COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*(to date)
    • Total cases: 395,011
    • Total deaths: 12,754
    • Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands)
    * Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.


    CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States
    During the pandemic, CDC provided estimates of the numbers of 2009 H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths on seven different occasions. Final estimates were published in 2011. These final estimates were that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. These final estimates are available at: Estimating the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the United States (April 2009-April 2010)[​IMG], Shrestha SS, et al., Clin Infect Dis. 2011 Jan 1;52 Suppl 1:S75-82.
     
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  14. Iprof

    Iprof Well-Known Member TECHNICAL Contributor

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    This thread started with jokes and down playing of the virus it turned concern for people's health now its turned to worry about the economy and close to panic.
    The country will survive businesses will need the government and the banks help to survive and they will.
     
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  15. Third Edition

    Third Edition Active Member

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    Get everyone back to work with masks & hand sanitizer. Do as Walmart said they'll do: take employee temperature as they come to work. If it's elevated, send them home.

    The vulnerable (elderly, smokers (perhaps vapers too), people with diabetes, lung conditions, asthma, etc.) should continue at home. Nursing homes continue closed to the outside world.

    More people are going to die from Covid-19. We cannot kill the economy along with it. Most of those dying have serious pre-existing conditions. Some medical experts say that Covid-19 is just hastening what would likely happen within a year even without Covid-19.

    Me, I'm in the elderly group. My wife has a lung condition. We are in that vulnerable group.

    H1N1 death totals from CDC were 8,868 to 18,306.

    Today for Covid-19 CDC has the US deaths at 12,754. Will surely eclipse even the higher number for H1N1. NYC alone has over 8000 fatalities.
     
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  16. Third Edition

    Third Edition Active Member

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    I have to laugh at folks saying the Covid-19 stimulus program(s) amount to socialism. Why is giving people back their money socialism? There are those who get without paying in. That IS socialism.
     
  17. bobeast

    bobeast Dance the Tide SILVER Sponsor

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    It is difficult to face facts when we do not actually have them. Oh sure, we have models, projections, and assumptions. interlaced with the few facts we do have. That is not the same thing as having the facts. The only real fact is that we do not know what we do not know.

    Take the "Total cases" number of 395k which includes only the cases we have either clinically confirmed, or "presumed". How in the world can you come up with a believable death rate number, if you do not know how many people actually have or have had the virus?

    Its understandable that we should draw conclusions based on the available data, but let's not draw too many from projections, assumptions, or "models". I suspect, once we employ widespread anti-body tests, we will get a much clearer picture of what the actual death rate is (after the fact). That will be the point at which we can reasonably compare this against previous pandemics.
     
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  18. mratlndmrk

    mratlndmrk Active Member GOLD Sponsor

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    So what about deaths from the Flu? Shouldn't we be shuttering business from october to March every year by that logic or do the 23,000 to 63,000 people who die from the flu every year not matter? Which is it?

    CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been:
    39,000,000 – 55,000,000
    flu illnesses

    [​IMG]
    18,000,000 – 26,000,000
    flu medical visits

    [​IMG]
    400,000 – 730,000
    flu hospitalizations

    [​IMG]
    24,000 – 63,000
    flu deaths

    [​IMG]
     
  19. CaptRonn

    CaptRonn Well-Known Member

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    You need to understand there is a tipping point. Once that point is crossed government simply won't be able to help businesses survive, and banks will close up. Government produces nothing, and all of it's revenue is derived from taxes. Dramatically shrink the tax base and government has less to deal with.

    Banks are businesses and not charities. Banks are not going to be issuing loans on high risk, and when they do, it's always to their advantage.

    Once again, burning down the house to kill the spider is the wrong way to do it.
     
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  20. CaptRonn

    CaptRonn Well-Known Member

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    The Covid numbers are being skewed all over the place right now.

    But I have one question for you: "How many deaths from economic downturn do you view as acceptable?" And why? (OK, two questions)
     
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