So in the last spike, cases doubled and deaths where cut in half. Start using your brain. There is no evidence that we'll be above April peaks in deaths.
The truth about wearing a mask -finally
- Thread starter El Capitan
- Start date
Woody
Well-Known Member
I don't know if it will or not, but it could be. The virus doesn't change but everything else can. You can get the regular flu and the new stuff at the same time...I'd think you'd be easier pickins if you're already run down from the regular flu. A bunch more school kids, newly exposed, can visit Gram and Gramps. We got trick or treat coming up and some holidays that'll bring some families together for sure.
The IHME model the White House relies on projects daily deaths of just about 3,000 by New Years. So, yes there is evidence we might be above the April highs. The model also projects that deaths could be held at right about the current level with better adherence to masking and social distancing. They are basing their projections on the impact of seasonality so somewhat uncharted territory, at least in this hemisphere. But, we are already seeing the colder countries of Europe starting to register huge increases in cases, too soon to say if that will increase the death count. I remember seeing opinions on here back in May or so that the virus was going to completely disappear, at least for the summer, it didn't work out that way.
Here's one:
Positive Covid-19 tests kept a mom and baby apart for 55 days. Experts see it as a bigger testing problem
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/08/viral-shedding-covid19-pcr-montreal-baby/
It's a valid concern. The problem is that there has only been one kind of arrow in the quiver, the PCR tests which can pick up viral remnants long after the person is OK. The solution is to use antigen tests which will show if a person is currently infected. Or, just use the time since infection to declare a recovery, which is somewhat risky.
PeteL
Active Member
- Aug 2, 2010
- 245
- Boat Info
- 2003 280 DA
Twin 5.0
Bravo III
"Viva la Vida"
- Engines
- Twin 5.0, bravo 3 drives
At this point in the Pandemic, can't we use data to target the vulnerable populations, and shape the response?
We are still treating this situation the same as we did in March. There are clear statistics that identify the vulnerable. We can certainly modify the response based on this data, the vast majority of people can get back to their regularly scheduled lives. Living in fear is existing, not living.
We are still treating this situation the same as we did in March. There are clear statistics that identify the vulnerable. We can certainly modify the response based on this data, the vast majority of people can get back to their regularly scheduled lives. Living in fear is existing, not living.
One of my kids... I have 4... won’t let me hold her new born (8 weeks now) because I go to bars and restaurants. This is a business marketing intelligent professional who has lost her mind over covid.... media and politicians in this country have poisoned us. I hope one day we all realize that
You're highlighting the need for a national plan. Sadly, that's been lacking. Like any other policy, it needs to be articulated, sold to the people and expertly executed.
At a high level, I don't see why your plan couldn't be made to work but the devil is in the details as usual. Here are some considerations:
- If widespread testing is not done and only sick individuals are tested, the potential exists to have exponential growth for quite some time before it's detected, which is what happened in the Northeast in March and the South in May/June. How will that be avoided or is it OK?
- What is the plan for the vulnerable who are identified? Are they going to sequestered somehow and wouldn't that be unequal treatment? Since the vulnerable make up about half of the population, who is going to take their place to allow the other half to enjoy their regularly scheduled lives? What will replace the half (or more since the elderly have so much disposable income) of economic activity represented by the vulnerable?
PeteL
Active Member
- Aug 2, 2010
- 245
- Boat Info
- 2003 280 DA
Twin 5.0
Bravo III
"Viva la Vida"
- Engines
- Twin 5.0, bravo 3 drives
This is the true tragedy. We have become so scared of interaction, on the off chance we might get sick. I actually prefer to be alone, but the change in behavior in everyone is starting to really bother me. I would be devastated if one of my daughters told me I could not hold my grandchild. I would hate to be a family member of someone trapped in a nursing home, and cannot visit my loved one. This needs to stop.
PeteL
Active Member
- Aug 2, 2010
- 245
- Boat Info
- 2003 280 DA
Twin 5.0
Bravo III
"Viva la Vida"
- Engines
- Twin 5.0, bravo 3 drives
National testing. No. I have outlined a scenario where that is useless. Test today, get sick tomorrow, get the negative result the day after. Now what? I thought I was negative, and go on my way to an encounter with other people, thinking I am negative. What does that accomplish.
National plan can only be guidelines, not mandate. Federal government does not have that authority over the states.
The identified vulnerable populations need to be advised to take measures to protect themselves, as in wear masks, limit contact with others etc. But it needs to be their choice, on advice of the local government. I don't think for a moment that the vulnerable are half the population. Would like to see your definition.
As for lost economic activity of the vulnerable, how could that possibly be worse that what's going on now where we are keeping healthy people from engaging in the economy?
I have offered my solution, what is yours? Other than continuing to keep the vast majority of the population under these restrictions for a sickness that will probably not affect or kill them?
PeteL
Active Member
- Aug 2, 2010
- 245
- Boat Info
- 2003 280 DA
Twin 5.0
Bravo III
"Viva la Vida"
- Engines
- Twin 5.0, bravo 3 drives
How many people in the northeast that tested positive are actually sick? Are the hospitals overflowing? Did the USNS Mercy come back to New York? How bad is it beyond a large number of positive tests??
- Aug 8, 2008
- 2,998
- Boat Info
- A 300 DA 4kw Gen-set, central vac, electric head, windlass, AC/reverse heat, Lowrance 522ci GPS Char
- Engines
- twin 5.7 with Alpha drives
Good for her.
Population based estimates of comorbidities affecting risk for complications from COVID-19 in the US
"Co-morbidities included cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, asthma, hypertension, and/or cancer other than skin. Overall 45.4% (95% CI 45.1-45.7) of adults reported any of the 6 comorbidities. Excluded were residents of nursing homes or assisted living facilities. Although almost certainly an underestimate of all adults at risk due to these exclusions, these results should help in estimating healthcare needs for adults with COVID-19 complications living in the community."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20043919v1
This study didn't include obesity which is running at a national rate of about 42%. Although some (probably large) number of the ones counted with other comorbidities are obese, there are certainly a remaining large number uncounted in the study.
To my point ...you have been poisoned. Problem is you don’t realize it... which is the difference between leaders and followers
The Northeast is doing quite well and models are projecting it will stay that way. It is projected to have somewhat more cases and deaths due to seasonality but nowhere near April levels. There actually aren't a large number of positive tests. The Midwest seems to be the current problem area.
- Aug 8, 2008
- 2,998
- Boat Info
- A 300 DA 4kw Gen-set, central vac, electric head, windlass, AC/reverse heat, Lowrance 522ci GPS Char
- Engines
- twin 5.7 with Alpha drives
One of your first posts was you don't wear a mask. You are against change and being pro active. It's people like you that is slowing the opening of the country. Your daught is doing the right thing and you criticize her on the internet.
- Aug 8, 2008
- 2,998
- Boat Info
- A 300 DA 4kw Gen-set, central vac, electric head, windlass, AC/reverse heat, Lowrance 522ci GPS Char
- Engines
- twin 5.7 with Alpha drives
My grandson that turns 8 this month is handling the virus better than many on this site. He wears a mask while in class all the students do his class has gone from 30 students to 15 so they can social distance. He knows that he needs to put a mask on before he goes into a store. My daughter has explained why he needs to be careful and why he needs to wash his hands a lot. There was no baseball this summer but the family did a lot of quad trips. After 25 days of recovery I was able to travel. We took our travel trailer and drove 1500 miles to be with them. I was only allowed to drive 5 hours a day so it took us 4 days to get there. My daughter and her husband rented the camp site beside us and they isolated for 2 weeks before we got there. The 7 and 4 year old knew to be able to see us they had to do that and did it with no complaints.
- Aug 8, 2008
- 2,998
- Boat Info
- A 300 DA 4kw Gen-set, central vac, electric head, windlass, AC/reverse heat, Lowrance 522ci GPS Char
- Engines
- twin 5.7 with Alpha drives
Nice rant but you told us your daughter won't let you hold the 8 week old baby because of your social habits. It's her child and her decision if you don't like it change your habits and hold your grand child but it is your decision just as it is hers.
- Aug 8, 2008
- 2,998
- Boat Info
- A 300 DA 4kw Gen-set, central vac, electric head, windlass, AC/reverse heat, Lowrance 522ci GPS Char
- Engines
- twin 5.7 with Alpha drives
You have a problem with logical decisions and things that go against your grain.
MonacoMike
Well-Known Member
- Sep 15, 2009
- 14,721
- Boat Info
- 2000 Cruisers 3870
8.2 Mercs
- Engines
- 85 Sea Ray Monaco 197
260hp Alpha 1
One of your first posts was you don't wear a mask. You are against change and being pro active. It's people like you that is slowing the opening of the country. Your daught is doing the right thing and you criticize her on the internet.
The daughter is absolutely wrong on this! The risk to the child of covid is virtually non existent. She has been unnecessarily scared by a world built on fake news. If babies were dying in mass it would lead the news everyday and night. It is unconscionable that she is so misinformed as to deny normal familial relations.
I am weary of those with the smug know it all attitude and we are going to force you to our will. The selfish that are for what is best for them personally, not the public. Trust me, I am not 30 anymore by a longshot, but I still have my core beliefs of freedom and that there is no constitutional right to constrain another on the flimsy evidence available.
Many people need to get out of the shell and look around at the devastation that has been racked on families, business owners and workers. Do they not matter? Is covid the only thing that matters? Do the suicides not matter? Do the failed marriages matter? Do the lost businesses matter? Do the substance dependent matter? Does the lost education of our children matter? All these have been greatly increased by the actions taken to "stop", an unstoppable virus. A virus that has not been near a destructive as we were told it would be.
I say let the peoples representatives at the state level work out the rules of engagement, they will be the closest to evaluating all the needs of the people we can get.
PeteL
Active Member
- Aug 2, 2010
- 245
- Boat Info
- 2003 280 DA
Twin 5.0
Bravo III
"Viva la Vida"
- Engines
- Twin 5.0, bravo 3 drives
Back to the top on this. We were told that the masks and other measures were necessary because COVID was lethal. We were shown pictures of people falling over, dead in the streets of Wuhan, and it was coming for us. So we shut the country down, and lo and behold the virus is not in fact deadly with a 95% or better survival rate. We have been shut down, for several months, and the survival rate remains steady, even improving. Also we know who is more likely to die, yet we are all still mandated to not interact and wear masks etc. No one has yet satisfactorily answered why we can't lift the restrictions and empower the vulnerable to protect themselves.
Since Feb, per the CDC
Total COVID Deaths as of 10/7 was 198,809
Age 0-4 37
Age 5-29 1,323
Age 30-64 81,167
Age 65 + 156,740
All Ages Death due to non COVID Pneumonia: 203,068
From the above, the vulnerable tend to be older people, so that's a starting point, and limiting there exposure makes some sense. I suspect that a very large part of that population has other health issues that made them more vulnerable.
But for the largest part of the population, the death rate is incredibly low. So we can with good advice and reasonable precaution open the economy back up.
As in any flu season, common sense must prevail, if you feel sick, stay home. If you are really sick, seek medical attention. If you are in a vulnerable population, or you feel like you are vulnerable then take precautions. If you want to wear a mask to protect yourself, then by all means do so. If you want to isolate yourself, do it. That is called taking care of yourself. Many of us have watched this thing unfold, and sure when there was an absence of knowlege we were concerned. But now we know more about what the virus is all about, and how lethal it is (or isn't) and we are willing to accept the risks associated with living life. But we can't because we persist in treating this as it was perceived in March, vice how it is panning out in October.
At this rate, we will never get back to anything resembling normal. The bar is set way too high.
Since Feb, per the CDC
Total COVID Deaths as of 10/7 was 198,809
Age 0-4 37
Age 5-29 1,323
Age 30-64 81,167
Age 65 + 156,740
All Ages Death due to non COVID Pneumonia: 203,068
From the above, the vulnerable tend to be older people, so that's a starting point, and limiting there exposure makes some sense. I suspect that a very large part of that population has other health issues that made them more vulnerable.
But for the largest part of the population, the death rate is incredibly low. So we can with good advice and reasonable precaution open the economy back up.
As in any flu season, common sense must prevail, if you feel sick, stay home. If you are really sick, seek medical attention. If you are in a vulnerable population, or you feel like you are vulnerable then take precautions. If you want to wear a mask to protect yourself, then by all means do so. If you want to isolate yourself, do it. That is called taking care of yourself. Many of us have watched this thing unfold, and sure when there was an absence of knowlege we were concerned. But now we know more about what the virus is all about, and how lethal it is (or isn't) and we are willing to accept the risks associated with living life. But we can't because we persist in treating this as it was perceived in March, vice how it is panning out in October.
At this rate, we will never get back to anything resembling normal. The bar is set way too high.
