The truth about wearing a mask -finally

alnav said:
The IHME model the White House relies on projects daily deaths of just about 3,000 by New Years. So, yes there is evidence we might be above the April highs. The model also projects that deaths could be held at right about the current level with better adherence to masking and social distancing. They are basing their projections on the impact of seasonality so somewhat uncharted territory, at least in this hemisphere. But, we are already seeing the colder countries of Europe starting to register huge increases in cases, too soon to say if that will increase the death count. I remember seeing opinions on here back in May or so that the virus was going to completely disappear, at least for the summer, it didn't work out that way.
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I just looked at that website. I would like to see the projection v. observation for the same period. Just to see how close to reality the projection was over time.
 
alnav said:
The IHME model the White House relies on projects daily deaths of just about 3,000 by New Years. So, yes there is evidence we might be above the April highs. The model also projects that deaths could be held at right about the current level with better adherence to masking and social distancing. They are basing their projections on the impact of seasonality so somewhat uncharted territory, at least in this hemisphere. But, we are already seeing the colder countries of Europe starting to register huge increases in cases, too soon to say if that will increase the death count. I remember seeing opinions on here back in May or so that the virus was going to completely disappear, at least for the summer, it didn't work out that way.
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A model isn't evidence. Evidence is evidence. Look at what is actually happening. Even though cases are double what they where, deaths are half. There is zero, zilch, zip evidence that deaths will increase back to April levels. And it passes the eye test -- we have better treatments today, than we did at the beginning. Add in the fact that we aren't seeding nursing homes, a la Cuomo, and the likelihood we see April death rates is remote at best.
 
Golfman25 said:
A model isn't evidence. Evidence is evidence. Look at what is actually happening. Even though cases are double what they where, deaths are half. There is zero, zilch, zip evidence that deaths will increase back to April levels. And it passes the eye test -- we have better treatments today, than we did at the beginning. Add in the fact that we aren't seeding nursing homes, a la Cuomo, and the likelihood we see April death rates is remote at best.
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So is this not evidence that a hurricane might hit the gulf coast in the next couple of days?
upload_2020-10-7_19-28-4.png
 
alnav said:
So is this not evidence that a hurricane might hit the gulf coast in the next couple of days?
View attachment 93268
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NO IT IS NOT. IT IS A PREDICTION. They frequently miss where landfall actually occurs -- it could move left, it could move right -- especially the further out they run the model.
 
Here's the problem.

Fauci says this: Speaking at a virtual event hosted by American University, the White House coronavirus specialist said: "If we don't do what we need to in the fall and winter, we could have 300,000-400,000 Covid-19 deaths," according to excerpts tweeted by the school.

But of course there are no specifics about "what we need to do in the fall and winter." Just alarmist drivel sucked up by headline writers. What do you have in mind Pope Fauci?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/06/fauci-covid-deaths-426977
 
Golfman25 said:
NO IT IS NOT. IT IS A PREDICTION. They frequently miss where landfall actually occurs -- it could move left, it could move right -- especially the further out they run the model.
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I was using the "signs or indications of something" definition of "evidence" and you appear to be using the "proof" definition. Fine, I'll try not to use that word again. Now, there are predictions from the White House's favorite model that that daily deaths from covid may rise to nearly 3,000 per day, well above April levels, by New Year's.

Golfman25 said:
Here's the problem.

Fauci says this: Speaking at a virtual event hosted by American University, the White House coronavirus specialist said: "If we don't do what we need to in the fall and winter, we could have 300,000-400,000 Covid-19 deaths," according to excerpts tweeted by the school.

But of course there are no specifics about "what we need to do in the fall and winter." Just alarmist drivel sucked up by headline writers. What do you have in mind Pope Fauci?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/06/fauci-covid-deaths-426977
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Dr. Fauci has quite clearly been muzzled. I've watched some of his recent appearances (which are hard to find) and he is pretty much limited to saying "follow the CDC guidelines" when asked what to do.
 
Funny how the HUTA are in panic mode and dictating to a new mother that her OPINION and actions are wrong. I believe we have a piece of paper that allows her to have freedom of choice.
 
MonacoMike said:
The federalist has an article on how much they want fear in the people.

“So we can’t have people prudent about COVID, or rational about COVID, or thoughtful, or courageous about COVID. That does not produce the social outcomes that these people want. Being scared of COVID does.“

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/0...weet-emphasizes-how-very-much-they-want-fear/
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OMG, in the final lead-up to an election, an opposing party is stoking fear. Shocking and shame on them.
 
MonacoMike said:
Scared people making irrational decisions based on fear stoked by those with ulterior motives...


Sums you guys up pretty well...
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You are referring to the people that want to open the country and believe the ones that don't can huddle at home. They are money driven which would be an ulterior motive.
 
Blueone said:
You are wrong but predictable....when you listen to media and political biased...you will conform...sheep are sheep...nothing wrong with that
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Your typical I don't like your decision or opinion so your wrong. My decision to not to vote for Trump is based on listening to him and his actions. My choice on whom to believe about Covid-19 is based on science not what Trump says.
 
Blueone said:
You are wrong but predictable....when you listen to media and political biased...you will conform...sheep are sheep...nothing wrong with that
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They and a bunch of their friends still think they are part of some kind of counterculture from the 60s. They can’t even fathom that they are just parroting from the powers that be, they are not asking for truth from the power. Being good little foot soldiers they come after us because we disagree with their orthodoxies from the powers that guide them.

It was hysterical sometime back one of them told me that I was just parroting what I was being told. LOL! They cannot reason out that voices like ours are questioning those exerting power. Who the heck is telling us what to say? I believe that shoe fits on the other foot, when the government, government paid scientists, and media are all on the same team.
 
Well, it's good to see we all agree now that masks and social distancing is a little over the top given where we are in the Pandemic.. Thanks for playing, great discussion.
 
PeteL said:
Well, it's good to see we all agree now that masks and social distancing is a little over the top given where we are in the Pandemic.. Thanks for playing, great discussion.
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You should have started your post once upon a time. Masks and social distancing are not over the top. They have proven that they work
 
Americans are increasingly adopting the use of cloth face masks to slow the spread of COVID-19, and the latest science may convince even more to do so.

In an editorial published today in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), CDC reviewed the latest science and affirms that cloth face coverings are a critical tool in the fight against COVID-19 that could reduce the spread of the disease, particularly when used universally within communities. There is increasing evidence that cloth face coverings help prevent people who have COVID-19 from spreading the virus to others.

“We are not defenseless against COVID-19,” said CDC Director Dr. Robert R. Redfield. “Cloth face coverings are one of the most powerful weapons we have to slow and stop the spread of the virus – particularly when used universally within a community setting. All Americans have a responsibility to protect themselves, their families, and their communities.”

This review included two case studies out today, one from JAMA, showing that adherence to universal masking policies reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a Boston hospital system, and one from CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), showing that wearing a mask prevented the spread of infection from two hair stylists to their customers in Missouri.

Additional data in today’s MMWR showed that immediately after the White House Coronavirus Task Force and CDC advised Americans to wear cloth face coverings when leaving home, the proportion of U.S. adults who chose to do so increased, with 3 in 4 reporting they had adopted the recommendation in a national internet survey.

The results of the Missouri case study provide further evidence on the benefits of wearing a cloth face covering. The investigation focused on two hair stylists — infected with and having symptoms of COVID-19 — whose salon policy followed a local ordinance requiring cloth face coverings for all employees and patrons. The investigators found that none of the stylists’ 139 clients or secondary contacts became ill, and all 67 clients who volunteered to be tested showed no sign of infection.

The finding adds to a growing body of evidence that cloth face coverings provide source control – that is, they help prevent the person wearing the mask from spreading COVID-19 to others. The main protection individuals gain from masking occurs when others in their communities also wear face coverings.

COVID-19 prevention in a Missouri hair salon

When two stylists at a Missouri hair salon tested positive for the virus that causes COVID-19, researchers from CoxHealth hospitals, Washington University, the University of Kansas, and the Springfield-Greene County Health Department worked together to trace contacts, investigate the cases, and publish their findings in the MMWR.

One of the stylists developed respiratory symptoms but continued to see clients for eight days. The other, who apparently became infected from her co-worker, also developed respiratory symptoms and continued to see clients for four days.

The salon in which they worked had a policy requiring both stylists and their clients to wear face coverings, consistent with the local government ordinance. Both stylists wore double-layered cloth face coverings or surgical masks when seeing clients. The median appointment time was 15 minutes and ranged from 15 to 45 minutes. More than 98% of clients wore a face covering—47% wore cloth face coverings, 46% wore surgical masks, and about 5% wore N-95 respirators.

When customers were asked whether they had been ill with any respiratory symptoms in the 90 days preceding their appointment, 87 (84%) reported that they had not. None of the interviewed customers developed symptoms of illness. Among 67 (48%) customers who volunteered to be tested, all 67 tested negative for the virus that causes COVID-19. Several family members of one of the stylist’s subsequently developed symptoms and received a diagnosis of COVID-19.


 
So according to this chart, we have seen high compliance in mask wearing 80-90%.
wore-mask-1.png

Yet the media keep yelling at me every night, that cases are "SPIKING." So it it really working all that well?
 
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